Case-Shiller: More Stable But Not Good
S&P/Case-Shiller released its November report on housing prices across the nation’s 20 biggest cities and the news wasn’t particularly good. There were some signs of stabilizing (and four cities have even seen price rises over the last year), but, as David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, put it, “there…
S&P/Case-Shiller released its November report on housing prices across the nation’s 20 biggest cities and the news wasn’t particularly good. There were some signs of stabilizing (and four cities have even seen price rises over the last year), but, as David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, put it, “there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery.” New York appeared to have continued downward momentum, with prices off 1% from October and more than 7% from a year earlier; the 20-city index as a whole was down 5.3% over the year. U.S. News & World Report estimates that overall prices have another 5 to 10% left to fall. “We see a big backlog of distressed properties that could come on the market in the next several quarters,” Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com told the publication. The Case-Shiller report comes on the heels of a larger-than-expected drop in existing home sales.
A Look at Case-Shiller, by Metro Area [WSJ]
Home Prices Stabilize Further [U.S. News]
Tough Times for Housing Market Followers [Seeking Alpha]
In New York, onerous real estate laws mean that foreclosures take roughly six months to complete, and post-foreclosure sales don’t usually close for another four months after that. This has kept buyers away, and hamstrung real estate recovery in the area.
“In states with complex foreclosure laws, the recovery is clearly being delayed,” says Simonsen. “For example, there are investment funds that will buy in Texas and California, but won’t buy in New York because it takes so long to foreclose–and then you have to go to court.”
New York prices likely have much farther to fall.
Although the rate of decline has mellowed from stomach-turning to gentle nationwide, these numbers show that any jubilation over a recovered real estate market would be premature.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/cities-with-the-fastest-falling-home-prices.html
DIBS get champagne we gotta celebrate!
“Chicken, your long term trend is basically tracking only 1992-1997. There’s no reason to think that that 5 year trend is a more relevant time than the other years. Does this data go back any further?
Posted by: lincolnlimestone at January 27, 2010 2:07 PM”
No – that’s as far back as Case-Shiller goes. I have seen graphs that go back further but not ones that apply specifically to New York.
From what I have seen, property transactions seem to be electronically recorded so if the archives have been converted then there might be some way to scrape the data and get a longer-term chart.
As for my “extrapolation”, it was very much tongue in cheek – of course you could get any result you wanted depending on the two points you picked.
If I were to take it a bit more seriously, I would calculate another line based upon the multiples of median income (Case Shiller is nominal) to get a long-run average.
Hamptons home sales jumped 59% in Q4 from a year earlier and the median price rose 4.9% according to Miller Samuel.
This of course cannot be construed as factual in an any way, shape or form.
Thanks for the input, Whuh. Got any comments on the subject thread or are you just here as an armchair psychologist???
Secondly, do you really think I actually give a shit???
I’m starting to believe DIBS is bi-polar, and shouldn’t be engaged with anymore. The cherrypicking, the hysterical namecalling, the frenzied excitement over the tiniest shred of confirmation for his own simplistic theories. Truly amazing. Any time someone with this personality profile tells me something is “forming a bottom,” I’m tempted to sell with both hands. Just sayin’.
Chicken, your long term trend is basically tracking only 1992-1997. There’s no reason to think that that 5 year trend is a more relevant time than the other years. Does this data go back any further?
dibs, right, or agita of being chased by creditors.
I didn’t see the box to input “Moral Obligation” or the output number as to “Damage to Credit Rating”
Interesting calculator, determines whether financial sense to walk away and rent:
http://tinyurl.com/cjvtob