Bearish Bob Toll: No One Wants to Look 'Like a Schmuck'
Well, leave it to Bob Toll to cast storm clouds over a Bloomberg news article that contains a slightly positive piece of news—the index of pending home sales rose 6.3 percent in April—about the national housing market. “What people are most scared of is looking like a schmuck,” said Toll, who believes the housing slump…
Well, leave it to Bob Toll to cast storm clouds over a Bloomberg news article that contains a slightly positive piece of news—the index of pending home sales rose 6.3 percent in April—about the national housing market. “What people are most scared of is looking like a schmuck,” said Toll, who believes the housing slump will last another two to three years, at a conference in New York last week. “What do I want to buy a home for and next year be looking at 10 percent less asset?” Economists, meanwhile, incorrectly predicted that the index of pending home sales would actually fall slightly in April. Either way, no one’s taking the news as a sure sign that housing is on the rebound, or that there’s going to be a substantial dent in the 5 million or so unsold homes on the market, or that the foreclosure rate is going to take a nosedive anytime soon.
U.S. Economy: Pending Sales of Existing Homes Unexpectedly Rise [Bloomberg]
Photo by david.
bxgrl and the t’What have obviously lost. Your responses are childish and truly sad.
bxgrl: Your very response shows that you lack a formal education. You didn’t get your money’s worth. I would go back and ask for a refund. Then you can come clean my toilets.
t’What: You never have a response to the actual question, do you? Census data is now 8 years old and estimates are just that. And since you aren’t really that ghetto, you forgot 11221 and 11233. Those two zip codes cover most of Bed-Stuy. 11238 is so white! If you are going to be ghetto, do it correctly.
But NY is not Tokyo or London.
NY real estate prices ALWAYS go up in the long run. Just look at the twentieth century: except for 1900-1920, 1929-1945, 1955-1975, 1987-1993, they always went up.
And if that isn’t enough statistics, try googling Robert Shiller’s work. He has charts going back to 1500 in some cases. Real estate goes up in the long run, usually at the same rate as inflation, so long as the city remains successful and popular.
But anyway, NY is the promised land, and it will keep getting better and better until only hedge fund moguls can live in 18 ft 3 story “fully renov” FSBOs.
Just extrapolate the trends from the last five years — in 15 years, only the Sheik of Dubai will be able to buy an apartment in the Novo.
Or better yet, look at the post on Curbed detailing building costs in NY. To do a gold-plated apartment in a Manhattan high rise costs $500 psf plus acquisition costs, which are a bit more than that. So if sales prices drop below current levels, building will end, driving prices up, unless acquisition costs drop, but that’s not going to happen, because they aren’t making land any more or increasing zoning rights or expanding neighborhoods and obviously no owner would ever sell for less than $500 a buildable foot regardless.
Anyway, at $5 per gallon, it might cost $2000 or $3000 a year to commute to the suburbs. Obviously people are going to be happy to pay an extra $500k or $1m to buy a tiny place in outer PS in order to save that. That’s just supply and demand. And as the suburbs decline in price, NY will just go up and up.
So buy now or forever a loser be!
But NY is not Tokyo or London.
NY real estate prices ALWAYS go up in the long run. Just look at the twentieth century: except for 1900-1920, 1929-1945, 1955-1975, 1987-1993, they always went up.
And if that isn’t enough statistics, try googling Robert Shiller’s work. He has charts going back to 1500 in some cases. Real estate goes up in the long run, usually at the same rate as inflation, so long as the city remains successful and popular.
But anyway, NY is the promised land, and it will keep getting better and better until only hedge fund moguls can live in 18 ft 3 story “fully renov” FSBOs.
Just extrapolate the trends from the last five years — in 15 years, only the Sheik of Dubai will be able to buy an apartment in the Novo.
Or better yet, look at the post on Curbed detailing building costs in NY. To do a gold-plated apartment in a Manhattan high rise costs $500 psf plus acquisition costs, which are a bit more than that. So if sales prices drop below current levels, building will end, driving prices up, unless acquisition costs drop, but that’s not going to happen, because they aren’t making land any more or increasing zoning rights or expanding neighborhoods and obviously no owner would ever sell for less than $500 a buildable foot regardless.
Anyway, at $5 per gallon, it might cost $2000 or $3000 a year to commute to the suburbs. Obviously people are going to be happy to pay an extra $500k or $1m to buy a tiny place in outer PS in order to save that. That’s just supply and demand. And as the suburbs decline in price, NY will just go up and up.
So buy now or forever a loser be!
3:02- touched a nerve didn’t I. We won’t have to go into my level of education- it’s higher than yours and believe me, it’s a hell of a lot high. but then a kid in pre-k has a better level of education than you. But you certainly are at the same level of maturity as a toddler.or maybe a little yappy dog.
You own? So what? It hasn’t done much for you as a human being or made you a great analytical thinker.
Cater to you? sorry- I only cater to people who earn respect- that let’s you out. But I hope you know I think it’s ok for you and your two-headed sister to have a relationship.I respect that.
Clean your toilets? Now there’s a surprise- I didn’t think you owned an indoor toilet- did you know many pet supply companies will deliver cat litter to your door? (My cat prefers the clumping kind.)
And finally-I was born in the Bronx and I can say with great confidence that you you would never make it in the Bronx. You aren’t good enough. But there is a great garbage dump on Staten Island that would probably suit you.
Wow, a whole hour and no response from the t’What. I guess he admits defeat.
Besides 3:26…i threw the Brooklyn comment in and you took the bait. Always fun to watch!!!
3:30: Not only is your teenage response so obvious, it is rather sick given that my mother is dead.
I hear Greyhound is a great way to get back to the corn fields. Bye, bye.
3:26…i’m actually a BBRG customer and when you start talking about Tokyo I think you’re in over your head. Tokyo office prices and condo prices have been on the rise since around 2003!!! It took about 13 years to bottom though.
Hi ya GPB Anon, that’s is your new name.
I got under YOUR skin, t’What. It is obvious from your need to respond to my posts.
Ah no more…
There are fewer and fewer blacks in Bed-Stuy as they are selling to non-blacks or priced out of their rentals. Nice try though, t’What.
I think you better get a seeing eye dog GPB Anon! Google the Census Bureau, Asshat!
Here is the stats on 11216 —> http://tinyurl.com/58ybha
Here is the stats on 11238—> http://tinyurl.com/5rvpdf
“I have no kids and I am certainly not scared of you. ”
Your sack is dry. Dust comes when “You come”..
Your sad threats make me laugh. You are so dumb. You think you know me? Come and get me then.
Call Biff, he likes to play “Reindeer Games”, Rudolf.
Still no date of the end of the war, t’What. Why not? Because is it is already over and you just can’t admit it so you try to scare people with your fake-ghetto posing? So sad little t’What.
I smell troll…
“btw: you can be ghetto and not be black. You can be black and not be ghetto. Nice attempt at race baiting. If you are black and ghetto, then YOU are black and ghetto.”
Btw You can be a Asshats without being a Asshat.. While being a Asshat but not being a Asshat…
“Don’t sully the good name of all the hard-working black people who live in Brooklyn. You do them a disservice.”
Well GPB Anon you wouldn’t know about that.. You see But-Boy I was born and raised here and when the crash happens. The youngings are going to use your skull for batting practice. Let’s see than you are “ghetto” enough! Go back to Kanas the little farm animals miss you…
The What (Get it on! I love this man!)
Someday this war is gonna end…