Bank Predicts NYC Market to Fall Another 40 Percent
If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver…
If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver of the bank’s estimate is an affordability index that shows New York is still relatively a very pricey place to shack up.
New York Home Prices Forecast to Drop 40% [Time]
Photo by tomodea
more4less… while the suffering will be substantial (and I mean the working class, not having to move out of your doorman building)… perhaps this is the sort of wake-up call the buyer side of the equation needs to have!
i.e., you should not pay $1.5 million for a house that sold for $750,000 a few years earlier. You shouldn’t be surprised if the value of your purchase PLUMMETS.
Guys it’s ALL going to get smashed! Why is it thinks this area or that area is special??!!
They had a meltdown on Wall Street, the Newspaper is going thru hard time and the rest is fucked! Here dumbasses suck this down. The retards tried to Gentrify Harlem but that not working out now…
Manhattan: Small Businesses In Harlem Take A Big Hit
http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/100784/-em-manhattan–em—small-businesses-in-harlem-take-a-big-hit/Default.aspx
To many, talk of the recession might just mean a bunch of numbers, percentages or falling stock prices, but in the neighborhoods of New York City, its effects are very real. NY1’s Rebecca Spitz filed the following report on how the recession is hitting home in Harlem.
One shuttered store after another along 125th Street means only one thing: Harlem is being hit hard by the recession.
Many businesses have packed up for good, others moved to more viable locations.
While there are stores still open for business, those merchants say things are very slow.
“I’ve been here 25 years, but nothing’s worse than now,” said Lisa Min of Harlem Star Gift.
Watch the report and get back to me…
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
“my point is banks hurting big would continue ”
I think they are going to be in for another round of pain :(.
Commercial real estate is next, with credit card debt defaults and “prime” mortgage defaults coming from all of the unemployment.
I’m not happy about it, but that’s what I see.
Oh, and I’m getting a 0% raise this year. And my bonus will be about 1/5th or 1/6th of last years. And I don’t work in Finance. And I’m getting a lot of pressure from senior management to outsource more and eliminate staff positions…
the truth hurts. It makes alot of the flipper speculators and real estate agents look and feel like losers. There goes that million dollar over infalted value in you wooden shack.
There has been research reports coming out like this coming out for the past 4 months. It is just now getting ionto the mainstream media. The DB report is very good and thorough and if you are about to buy a place in NYC i suggest you buy the report i think it will cost you 70 bucks. Goldman Sachs also had a great report and said similiar price drops as the DB report. Goldman said prices could drop 55 percent. Smart people have known about this for some time which is why nothing is selling in Manhattan over 5 million. Just sit back and watch from the beuty of youre rental as the trapdoor opens on all the suckers who overpaid. This will be ugly
The source:
New York is least affordable of the Top 10 In New York, prices still have to drop an additional 32.0% from Q1 2009 levels just to restore
affordability to its historic high (1998), as has already occurred in
74 of the top 100 markets. But including model risk factors beyond just affordability, we are projecting a 40.6% decline, from Q1 2009. This is, however, improvement from the projected decline that we published in March (47.4%). The improvement is due simply to the fact that recent price declines have brought New York closer to the trough. Somewhat confusingly, actual home price declines
can impact our analytical framework in competing ways. First, all else
equal, if prices have declined, then the MSA should be that much closer to its bottom for
prices. However, because our model also includes a risk factor score for negative home
price momentum, dramatic price declines can also have at least a partially offsetting
negative effect. The peak for home prices in the New York MSA was in Q2 2007, when the median home price hit $552k. As of Q1 2009, the median home price had dropped to $446k, down 19% from the peak. While this is painful, it pales in comparison to what
has already been experienced in many other regions of the country, particularly in
parts of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Many MSAs in those states peaked earlier than New York and prices have been falling in those areas for longer. Our total, peak-to-trough forecasted decline in New York is 52.1%
“time tide” wtf?
nice editing nsr.
northsloperenter,
my point is banks hurting big would continue – far far diff spin out in mkt now of green shoots, stabilizing, blah blah. if the 40% is to happen in a 2 yr span, I would worry about my job over where’s a cheap house to buy
“Even then, that’s the AREA not prime NYC.”
A sinking time tide drops all ships.
Brooklyn Heights will still have a premium over Red Hook or Prospect Heights, and it may even be a higher % difference than in 2005/2006, but the actual numbers will still drop.
Maybe prospect heights drops 42% and brooklyn heights drops 36%.
But with FiDi crashing just across the river, I think brooklyn heights will come under pressure from there too…