For example I can tell you that the probability of rolling a 1 on a single roll of a die is 1/6.
If you roll the die 6 times, you will probably get zero, one or two 1s. In that sample, you will conclude that either (1) my probability calculation is perfect or (2) it is completely wrong.
Roll 50 more times. Now the actual number of 1s as a percentage of the total sample is starting to approximate 1/6.
Roll a thousand more times. A million. A billion. The portion of 1s will more and more closely approximate 1/6 of the total sample size.
Paradoxically, in absolute (not percentage) terms the deviation of the number of 1s in the sample from the predicted 1/6 will increase.
If there are 50 keys on the typewriter, the probability of the monkey getting Shakespeare correct is raised to the power of the number of characters, letters and spaces, in Shakespeare plus the adjustments of the typewriter needed for capitals and punctuation. On this basis the chance of the monkey typing the word ‘Hamlet’ correctly is one in 15,625,000,000, so to quote the probability of him typing the complete works involves a large number indeed. It may be theoretically possible, but it would probably be a project that would last to the end of the universe. By then monkey’s may have evolved enough to find better use for their time.
recall Kens or JB saying Mimi’s was so so
For example I can tell you that the probability of rolling a 1 on a single roll of a die is 1/6.
If you roll the die 6 times, you will probably get zero, one or two 1s. In that sample, you will conclude that either (1) my probability calculation is perfect or (2) it is completely wrong.
Roll 50 more times. Now the actual number of 1s as a percentage of the total sample is starting to approximate 1/6.
Roll a thousand more times. A million. A billion. The portion of 1s will more and more closely approximate 1/6 of the total sample size.
Paradoxically, in absolute (not percentage) terms the deviation of the number of 1s in the sample from the predicted 1/6 will increase.
“any noteworthy restaurants in ditmas park besides the farm on adderly?”
dh, the castillo plan is small plates but tasty and they have terrific selections of beer/wine.
is the hummus at mimi’s yummus?
cool – will try that or farm.
Yes, gem, from Fujian, a port city on the SE coast.
I was at a get together at friends house, less than 30 people. 3 of us had the same birthday. 2 the same year
If there are 50 keys on the typewriter, the probability of the monkey getting Shakespeare correct is raised to the power of the number of characters, letters and spaces, in Shakespeare plus the adjustments of the typewriter needed for capitals and punctuation. On this basis the chance of the monkey typing the word ‘Hamlet’ correctly is one in 15,625,000,000, so to quote the probability of him typing the complete works involves a large number indeed. It may be theoretically possible, but it would probably be a project that would last to the end of the universe. By then monkey’s may have evolved enough to find better use for their time.
“DH – I love mimi’s Hummus in DP on Cortelyou”
Gem, Mimi’s got very good reviews as the ROTD in the link I just posted.
“today im all itchy everywhere from the soap i bought yesterday grrrr”
**rob**
It rubs the lotion on it’s skin or it gets the hose…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrwDFgEeFCE