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+1,396,741 blog pts to jackal for discussing probability.
+1,000,000 blog pts to jackal for busting out a skee-lo rap verse
This is the goats & doors thing I mentioned in case you think I am nuts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Also the reason behind the Monty Hall problem I believe.
etson – Yes, that’s what I think too.
“I think it’s based on the probability that 2 people out of 30 would *not* have the same birthdate.”
Yeah but that’s just 1 minus the probability that at least 2 people in the room share the same b-day. Saying the same thing in a different way.
No legion, it has nothing to do with months and days, unless you’re talking about 2 people having the say birth-“day” even in different months.
It’s just probability and it’s counter intuitive–it’s 99% probability with just 57 people, and 50% probability with 23 people in the room. I don’t quite understand the math because it’s been a looooong time since I had to study it.
oops just realized lech said almost same thing. Colleague came in to talk to me when I was typing….
“Do you know that the chances of two people in a room of
30 sharing the same birthday is not
1/365 X 1/365”
Hi all, v.busy at work so not been posting but j
Isn’t the reason that it isn’t 1/365*1/365 is because there are 30 people in the room, not two.
(Isn’t this conditional probability? Remember some example based on a quiz show with goats and prizes behind doors. Historian, not statistician, here so don’t blame me if this is wrong)