Open Thread

Donatella,

if gold goes up to 1400 without any new big piece of bad news, I would have to consider shorting it a little to hedge my position

and hard.

DCB, can I be your go-fer? I’ll “settle” for 175k

Sentiment at ‘Panic’ Levels Signals Stock Rally: Chart of Day

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — Investors’ sentiment on U.S. stocks has fallen to “panic” levels, an indication that the equity market will rise over the next 6 to 12 months, according to Tobias Levkovich at Citigroup Inc.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows that Citigroup’s Panic/Euphoria Model declined to as low as minus 0.49 this month. In March 2009, the gauge had dropped to minus 0.46, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index started a rally of as much as 80 percent on governmental efforts to stimulate the economy. The chart also shows that the measure had fallen to minus 0.36 on October 2002, when the S&P 500 entered a five-year rally to its record high of
1,565.15 on October 2007.
“If you break below the panic line, there’s a 90 percent probability that stocks will be up in six months,” Levkovich, Citigroup’s New York-based chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a telephone interview. “There’s about a 97 percent probability that stocks will be up 12 months later.”
Citigroup’s model is a compilation of the New York Stock Exchange’s short-interest ratio, margin debt, Nasdaq’s daily volume as a percentage of NYSE’s volume, a composite average of Investors Intelligence and the American Association of Individual Investors “bullishness” data, retail money funds, put/call ratio, CRB futures index, gasoline prices and the ratio of price premiums in puts versus calls.