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  1. Folks;

    It wasn’t yesterday, it happened on Monday. If you click on my name,you can see the posts.

    Sam;

    One of the best comments I’ve heard coming out of this financial debacle was something along the line of “Top-paid PhD statistical modelers, with 10’s of millions of dollars at their disposal, and 100’s of billions of dollars on the line, didn’t foresee this disaster coming in their model. Yet, we are told with certainty by climate scientists, with much more meager statitical modelling resources, that Earth’s temperature is definitely rising”.

    Well put!!!

    I used to do statistical modelling of processes in my engineering work, and I couldn’t have said it better myself. All models are as good as the assumptions you put into them, and anyone who claims they prove anything with certainty doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

  2. On global warming….

    Kyoto – Arctic ice reported back to 1979
    levels. Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent
    months, global sea ice levels now equal those
    seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also
    drew to a close. Ice levels had been tracking
    lower throughout much of 2008, but rapidly
    recovered over the past four months. In fact,
    the rate of increase from September onward is
    the fastest rate of change on record, either
    upwards or downwards. This data is being
    reported by the University of Illinois’s Arctic
    Climate Research Center, and is derived from
    satellite observations of the Northern and
    Southern hemisphere polar regions.
    Each year, millions of square kilometers of sea
    ice melt and refreeze. However, the mean ice
    anomaly — defined as the seasonally-adjusted
    difference between the current value and the
    average from 1979-2000, varies much more
    slowly. That anomaly now stands at just under
    zero, a value identical to one recorded at the
    end of 1979, the year satellite record-keeping
    began. Earlier this year, predictions were rife
    that the North Pole could melt entirely in 2008.
    Instead, the Arctic ice saw a substantial
    recovery.
    Researchers had expected the newer sea ice,
    which is thinner, to be less resilient and melt
    easier. Instead, the thinner ice had less snow
    cover to insulate it from the bitterly cold air,
    and therefore grew much faster than expected.
    We have attached the article where this data
    was initially reported, as well as the University
    of Illinois’s Arctic Climate Research Centers
    letter of response to that article:
    http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834
    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/global.sea.ice.
    area.pdf

    Al??? Al Gore????

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