Last Week's Biggest Sales
1. CARROLL GARDENS $1,675,000 32 1st Place GMAP This 20’x55′ 4-family brownstone hit the market in October, priced at $1,890,000. According to its listing on StreetEasy, it “needs renovation” but has a lot of original touches intact: “The garden level has original tin ceilings. The Parlor Floor has a huge front parlor and rear parlor…
1. CARROLL GARDENS $1,675,000
32 1st Place GMAP
This 20’x55′ 4-family brownstone hit the market in October, priced at $1,890,000. According to its listing on StreetEasy, it “needs renovation” but has a lot of original touches intact: “The garden level has original tin ceilings. The Parlor Floor has a huge front parlor and rear parlor with pocket doors, pier mirrors, marble mantels and gorgeous original detail. The third and fourth floors have tin ceilings and marble mantels. In addition there is a fifth floor, but it is not full ceiling height.” Entered into contract on 1/14/10; closed on 3/12/10; deed recorded on 3/22/10.
2. CARROLL GARDENS $1,475,000
348 Sackett Street #2 GMAP
Located in the 5-story elevator building at 348 Sackett Street, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1,839-sf condo has white oak hardwood floors and an open kitchen, says its listing on Streeteasy. Entered into contract on 11/4/09; closed on 3/18/10; deed recorded on 3/26/10.
3. CARROLL GARDENS $1,475,000
348 Sackett Street #3 GMAP
Just like the 348 Sackett Street condo above, this one’s got 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,839 sf. Entered into contract on 8/9/09; closed on 3/17/10; deed recorded on 3/26/10.
4. DUMBO $1,425,000
100 Jay Street, #23H GMAP
This 1,592-sf condo has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1 half bath. According to StreetEasy, it was listed at $1,575,000 in February ’09, and in June ’09, the price decreased by 5% to $1,499,000. Entered into contract on 2/16/10; closed on 3/12/10; deed recorded on 3/23/10.
5. MANHATTAN BEACH $1,200,000
177 Kensington Street GMAP
According to PropertyShark, this 2-story, 2,378-sf, 1-family home with a garage is located on a 6,000-sf lot near Manhattan Beach Park. Entered into contract on 10/14/09; closed on 3/18/10; deed recorded on 3/25/10.
Photos from Property Shark and Development Watch.
“the first thing that pops to mind when I see you’re still on and posting after midnight is certainly not winner. Kinda the opposite…”
I know, right?
The problems I have with shorting are timing and corruption. You have to time your puts right or risk getting killed with margin calls. The corruption and manipulation in the markets (Washington/FED insiders, Enron-style balance sheet fraud, etc) makes it even harder to time. You have to be both mathematical, political and a downright gambler. It’s a casino right now.
Your interpretations about my actions are absolutely wrong. What’s to be scared about if you predict deflation and keep most of your assets in cash? And I don’t know how long you’ve been blogging or lurking on here but my view has been quite consistent and sure whether ultimately proven wrong or not.
Whether or not I’m smart enough to ID the right trades AT THE RIGHT TIME also remains to be seen. Maybe not. But my objective all along was to by a brownstone at a stable price, something not possible in 2004 and, in my view, not possible now (withhout a “deal” of half off peak).
So, I will continue to express my market view and call out the nonsense whenever I see fit.
***Bid half off peak comps***
>> “It’s after midnight – I win.”
Though no one is ever going to “win” the argument on these boards, the first thing that pops to mind when I see you’re still on and posting after midnight is certainly not winner. Kinda the opposite…
And you just don’t get it re: cash. Yes, holding cash will do OK if your deflationary doomsday comes. But it’s not a _commitment_ to that view: there are plenty of riskier trades you can put on that will do MUCH better than cash if you are right. But you don’t want to take those risks, ergo you are not committed.
Your actions say you are a bit scared and unsure of your view. Nothing wrong with that at all, just don’t say one thing (that you’re soooo sure a housing collapse and return to 666 on the S&P 500 will come) but do something inconsistent with the certainty you express (hold cash).
Of course, there is another explanation too: that you’re not smart enough to identify the risky trades that will really prosper if you turn out to be right, hence you just throw up your hands and hold cash…
Jan 09 180.94
Feb 09 177.83
Mar 09 173.60
Apr 09 170.67
May 09 171.16
Jun 09 172.36
Jul 09 174.16
Aug 09 175.48
Sep 09 175.32
Oct 09 174.89
Nov 09 172.98
Dec 09 171.85
Jan 09 171.27
in three months we will have hit your y-o-y metric.
Oh shit! I’m was ratpacked by the whole damn bullpen! It doesn’t get any better than this! I’m in your heads! Thinking real hard now about those RE and equity positions, huh?
fsrg – I’m not suprised at all given the support. What about the other mounting evidence, off-balance-sheet losses, accounting fraud, spiking lis pendens, spreading sovereign defaults, etc? How can one be adamently bullish against all that?
antidope – Thanks for responding to fsrg regarding my bottom metric but “imminent” is a gargantuan assumption. We’ve had multiple false glimmers of hope since the peak and government interference has its limits. What makes this release any different?
be rude,
Debt issuance is contracting by amounts not seen since 1981. It’s not a just a few data points. We’re not in the midst but we’re at the onset.
SoCal and Vegas didn’t cause the crises. It was the massive credit expansion of the last 30 years, coupled with the repeal of Glass Steagall, fraudulent underwriting in mortgages, mark-to-model accounting, overrating of MBS’s and other forms of fraud and deception. The damage has NOT been done – it is BEING done, in present tense, off balance sheet so the general public can’t see. The collapse continues – even the main stream says we aren’t out of the woods because the bad loans are still out there and tied to the banks here on Wall Street.
The global economy IS slipping. Debt problems are virtually everywhere from the Western nations to emerging markets.
Counter-cyclical policies have not solved anything. Loose or tight, the S&P will crash through the March lows before we get any kind of real recovery.
Holding cash is a committment to deflationary expectations and therefore a position. “cash position” – you hear it all the time. You’re all wrong.
Sebb – You’re tired ’cause I’m in your head and you’re losing sleep. ‘Half off’ nightmares have you waking up in cold sweats.
wasder – Thanks for the shout out.
It’s after midnight – I win. Good night and God bless.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Even if they never get to be half off you can’t say the guy was totally wrong…
BHO : It’s getting real tired now.
Ah, BHO, where to start.
We’ve had a few deflationary data points, but we’re hardly in the midst of deep, wide-scale deflation that would explain the trade deficit’s decline. The trade deficit was falling well before the crisis with the dollar weakening. In any event, as I said: “Would it hurt us to have a smaller trade deficit? Of course not”, so this isn’t a point of contention.
You’re taking too much of a backward-looking view. Of course problems in SoCal and Vegas come back home to roost, but that already happened. That’s what caused the crisis. The damage has been done, but we don’t need those RE markets to recover for the Brooklyn RE market to recover. You need only look at the data (…it must be convenient for you to ignore data, but it’s foolish…) — such as condos selling for $800/sq ft — to see that continued problems in Vegas _aren’t_ impacting our NYC RE market today.
To broader points about a recovery, as you yourself say, the “global economy is one pie from which we all take slices”. That’s exactly right. And is the global economy slipping? Most certainly not. Look to Brazil, India, China, Australia, and countless other economies to see that global growth is actually quite robust today. Our tech and service sectors will see growth due to this robust global growth. And as to housing, economists say we need to see housing stabilize and turn up in key parts of the U.S. to sustain the recovery. They’re _not_ saying we need every single city to improve. Critically — again, as the data in this very thread shows — NYC housing _is_ stabilizing. Vegas & Riverside, CA housing doesn’t mean anything to the broader economy at this stage.
The Austrian school believes an over-inflated money supply in the 20s is the main cause of the Depression. More power to you if you believe that. The point still remains that at the time, the Fed did nothing in the way of counter-cyclical monetary policy (and indeed _contracted_ money supply), which is a critical difference with today. Whether or not they did so because they “knew there was absolutely nothing they could do” is besides the point, they still acted very differently. Thus today’s environment of counter-cyclical policy will ensure a different outcome. I believe it will sow the seeds of recovery — as the balance of data to date supports — but in any event it will ensure a different outcome, so again, you’re simple comparison to April 1930 is irrelevant. The case you _should_ be arguing — given how the Fed has acted and your apparent doomsday inclinations — is that the Fed will keep policy loose for too long and inflate another bubble that will crash spectacularly five years or so down the line. That’s NOT my view, but at least it is more reasonable than any notion that the S&P will crash 20% or more in the immediate future.
Oh, and as dibs said, holding cash is NOT commiting to a view of the market. Cash = agnostic. That’s fine, but if you’re a committed doomsday bear, go short and show some conviction.
he’s previously said he would throw in the towel when y-o-y c/s numbers turned positive.
now that this is imminent, he has shifted the metric to *let’s see what happens after the govt training wheels come off.* that means come back in late summer, if/when tax credit is gone (it won’t be) and the mbs purchasing is unplugged. he has a point that the govt is interfering with his view and distorting the data, but i do submit THAT WAS THE POINT.
BHO –
I’ll admit to be a surprised as anyone how well the residential RE market in NYC in general and in Brooklyn in particular has held up against the greatest financial crash in history….but in light of be_rude’s excellent point regarding your intransigence in the face of mounting evidence I have to ask you – at what point will you concede to being wrong?? Is there some time frame, or event or metric that we can all look to and say – well Brownstones (and condos and coops) arent/werent half off – guess BHO was wrong…or do you get to hold this position forever and claim victory if for example our republic (and housing $) comes crashing down in 50yrs?