Open House Picks: Six Months Later

“I’m actually really amazed at how prices in NYC are holding on. I thought for sure we’d see more declines by now. I’m actually getting more optimistic…”

my dear idiot Mopar, statements such as this truly show how truly ignorant, uneducated and/or plain stupid you really are…

Ha ha to “tampons” and “Ak-47” too.

I like Bear Mafia. La Cosa Nosedive.

I look forward to tomorrow.

***Bid half off peak comps***

“Why is June 06 the actual peak?”

That’s when the NY reading of 215.83, the highest on record, was recorded.

http://tinyurl.com/3x5p34

And, wow, as I reiterated above that rents were falling, The Times were busy with this piece.

‘A Month Free? Rents Are Falling Fast’

http://tinyurl.com/d6fy7q

“While prices have started to slide in Manhattan, they are steadier in Brooklyn.”

Because of their snapshot perspective, Team Bull will eat this shit up on tomorrow’s inevitable thread on the piece. They will bypass the next sentence…

“Increasingly, however, there are deals to be found…”

IIIIIIIINCREEEEEEASIIIIIIIINGLY. It’s a trend that shows no signs of turning around. Brooklyn rents will collapse to what the remaining employed can afford. Again, Historic Brownstone Brooklyn TM is an extension of Manhattan, not the other way around. Yes, another lag.

And the overwhelming majority of landlords cannot afford to wait out the softening rental market. That would equate to more than the difference. Unlike sale prices, rents will be “Falling Fast”!. The argument that people buy as refugees from the rental market is now officially dead.

***Bid half off peak comps***

“DOW (BHO)I have a lot of respect for your analysis (way of thinking) but you still only have a 50% chance of being correct.”

Respect, mate. But the fate of this global home price appreciation Ponzi/Madoff type bubble will not be decided by the toss of a coin.

“Signs of a property stabilazation before June will mean we are backing away from the cliff.”

There will absolutely be no stabilization unless the YOY passes through zero. When that happens, believe me, I will call bottom.

“As you know trends turn on a spike… the case-Killa acceleration could well be that spike.”

No, that theory fails on the NY numbers below. Spikes don’t apply to the monthly reading of the Case-Shiller YOY percent change. It changes very gradually. And that makes sense because it’s real estate. Real estate psychology is very slow.

MO-YR YOY REMARK
Apr-91 -8.89% ACTUAL BOTTOM
May-91 -8.12%
Jun-91 -6.91%
Jul-91 -5.57%
Aug-91 -4.23%
Sep-91 -3.04%
Oct-91 -2.33%
Nov-91 -1.71%
Dec-91 -1.14%
Jan-92 0.00% BOTTOM CALL (changes sign)
Feb-92 0.94%
Mar-92 1.92%
Apr-92 2.92%
May-92 2.84%
Jun-92 2.23%
Jul-92 1.45%
Aug-92 1.19%
Sep-92 0.91%
Oct-92 0.63%
Nov-92 0.72%
Dec-92 0.82%
Jan-93 1.27%
Feb-93 1.40%
Mar-93 1.41%
Apr-93 1.26%
May-93 1.37%
Jun-93 1.73%
Jul-93 1.82%
Aug-93 1.58%
Sep-93 1.65%
Oct-93 1.91%
Nov-93 1.99%
Dec-93 1.80%
Jan-94 1.42%
Feb-94 1.34%
Mar-94 1.70%
Apr-94 2.04%
May-94 2.43%
Jun-94 2.30%
Jul-94 2.52%
Aug-94 2.71%
Sep-94 2.71%
Oct-94 2.54%
Nov-94 2.11%
Dec-94 2.15%
Jan-95 2.18%
Feb-95 2.43%
Mar-95 1.76%
Apr-95 1.16%
May-95 0.62%
Jun-95 0.49%
Jul-95 0.27%
Aug-95 0.11%
Sep-95 0.11%
Oct-95 0.30%
Nov-95 0.45%
Dec-95 0.43%
Jan-96 0.45%
Feb-96 0.56%
Mar-96 1.22%
Apr-96 1.50%
May-96 1.70%
Jun-96 1.20%
Jul-96 1.24%
Aug-96 1.44%
Sep-96 1.62%
Oct-96 1.57%
Nov-96 1.48%
Dec-96 1.69%
Jan-97 1.84%
Feb-97 1.71%
Mar-97 1.36%
Apr-97 1.38%
May-97 1.47%
Jun-97 2.53%
Jul-97 2.94%
Aug-97 3.00%
Sep-97 2.92%
Oct-97 3.10%
Nov-97 3.65%
Dec-97 3.85%
Jan-98 4.10%
Feb-98 4.71%
Mar-98 5.39%
Apr-98 5.91%
May-98 6.20%
Jun-98 6.19%
Jul-98 6.54%
Aug-98 6.96%
Sep-98 7.54%
Oct-98 7.81%
Nov-98 7.80%
Dec-98 7.60%
Jan-99 7.35%
Feb-99 7.20%
Mar-99 7.45%
Apr-99 8.06%
May-99 8.15%
Jun-99 8.65%
Jul-99 8.86%
Aug-99 9.49%
Sep-99 9.69%
Oct-99 10.00%
Nov-99 10.27%
Dec-99 11.01%
Jan-00 11.74%
Feb-00 11.85%
Mar-00 11.83%
Apr-00 11.81%
May-00 12.82%
Jun-00 12.68%
Jul-00 12.62%
Aug-00 12.41%
Sep-00 12.38%
Oct-00 12.49%
Nov-00 12.48%
Dec-00 12.68%
Jan-01 12.66%
Feb-01 12.90%
Mar-01 13.04%
Apr-01 12.88%
May-01 11.53%
Jun-01 11.23%
Jul-01 11.29%
Aug-01 11.49%
Sep-01 11.98%
Oct-01 12.08%
Nov-01 12.49%
Dec-01 11.49%
Jan-02 11.12%
Feb-02 10.47%
Mar-02 10.50%
Apr-02 10.67%
May-02 11.61%
Jun-02 12.13%
Jul-02 12.97%
Aug-02 13.45%
Sep-02 13.65%
Oct-02 14.31%
Nov-02 14.87%
Dec-02 16.42%
Jan-03 17.06%
Feb-03 17.46%
Mar-03 17.30%
Apr-03 16.88%
May-03 16.16%
Jun-03 14.87%
Jul-03 13.55%
Aug-03 12.63%
Sep-03 12.46%
Oct-03 12.11%
Nov-03 12.07%
Dec-03 11.78%
Jan-04 11.65%
Feb-04 11.96%
Mar-04 12.29%
Apr-04 12.55%
May-04 13.02%
Jun-04 13.85%
Jul-04 14.49%
Aug-04 14.69%
Sep-04 14.44%
Oct-04 14.60%
Nov-04 14.38%
Dec-04 14.08%
Jan-05 14.40%
Feb-05 14.78%
Mar-05 15.34%
Apr-05 15.33%
May-05 14.92%
Jun-05 14.38%
Jul-05 13.72%
Aug-05 13.71%
Sep-05 13.93%
Oct-05 14.15%
Nov-05 14.49%
Dec-05 14.86%
Jan-06 14.06%
Feb-06 13.30%
Mar-06 11.53%
Apr-06 10.75%
May-06 10.01%
Jun-06 9.13% ACTUAL PEAK
Jul-06 7.70%
Aug-06 5.94%
Sep-06 4.52%
Oct-06 3.20%
Nov-06 1.87%
Dec-06 0.52%
Jan-07 -0.34% PEAK CALL (changes sign)
Feb-07 -0.91%
Mar-07 -0.91%
Apr-07 -1.56%
May-07 -2.35%
Jun-07 -2.94%
Jul-07 -3.20%
Aug-07 -3.35%
Sep-07 -3.61%
Oct-07 -4.08%
Nov-07 -4.50%
Dec-07 -5.29%
Jan-08 -5.64%
Feb-08 -6.62%
Mar-08 -7.47%
Apr-08 -7.95%
May-08 -7.90%
Jun-08 -7.29%
Jul-08 -7.06%
Aug-08 -6.67%
Sep-08 -7.28%
Oct-08 -7.66%
Nov-08 -8.69% FURTHER FROM ZERO

“New York is not the only place “holding on”. Houses in major Asian centers have not dropped (just showing signs that they will).”

Lag lag lag. The same stalemate between buyers and sellers happened in California, Arizona, Nevada and Miami. They’re only ahead of us. It’s a differential but global collapse. We’re still paying bonuses (albeit 45% less) for Christ’s sake. China is just now slowing down. The snapshot analysis looks good only temporarily. If you keep the cameras rolling, you will see much more pain.

There are a myriad of options one can employ to hold on and none of them are limited to renting in an expensive locale. Example, you can wait out the Brooklyn collapse by renting something out in Queens or Staten Island. Not particlulary desireable for most on this blog but it’s a means to an end from a purely financial perspective.

But guess what? Rents are falling too (as I have been predicting consistently for a year now). The cat is out of the bag. There have been at least two threads within the last few weeks based on articles that proclaim rents in Manhattan are dropping and in some instances less than their Brooklyn counterparts. The Clermont, One Hanson Place, and others, are becoming condentals because nobody’s buying them at these bubblicious prices. In other cases, tenants are just flat out losing their jobs and can’t pay their rents. So sale prices were already out of whack with rents. Now they’re even more out of whack.

***Bid half off peak comps***