No real estate bust will occur until “the end of the decade,” according to YIMBY. “We don’t expect to see a slowdown in gentrification…For better or for worse, we see 2015 shaping up a lot like 2014 but on steroids, with the current cycle having a few more years to run before petering out and turning to bust towards the end of the decade.”
We disagree; if there is a national real estate crash — perhaps brought on by the flameout of a large REIT — Brooklyn will crash too; if interest rates rise significantly, prices will decline. Those somewhat unpredictable events will be counterbalanced by demand in Brooklyn, which will continue. So absent a real-estate market implosion or rising interest rates, we believe, Brooklyn prices will keep on climbing, just like they have in Manhattan. Eventually, though, growth may slow.
Overall, YIMBY predicted recent trends will continue:
But we do expect to see trends that started over the past few years continue, as the city’s prime core, gentrifying fringe, and outer ring of immigrant growth and white flight all press forward in the face of minimal new supply.
In specific neighborhoods, YIMBY said:
To the south, we expect to see Flatbush, Sunset Park, and Kensington emerge as fast-gentrifying neighborhoods — Flatbush as the new Prospect Lefferts Gardens, Sunset Park as the new South Slope and Greenwood Heights, and Kensington as the new Windsor Terrace. Tension over growth should be most pronounced in Flatbush, where zoning is loosest — while we expect Hello Living’s 23-story tower at 1580 Nostrand, practically in East Flatbush, to have the same stellar design and affordable prices as Eli Karp’s other projects, we also see it riling up the left-leaning elements of Flatbush proper, much as 626 Flatbush Avenue did in Prospect Lefferts Gardens.
What do you think?