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  1. In today’s dollars, gold’s all time high is $1,600/oz. Hyperinflation will make it overshoot to $2,000/oz (in today’s dollars) before this depression ends. I plan to save half my incoming cash evenly into goldmoney, Perth, bullion and coin.

    ***Bid half off peak comps***

  2. “But I don’t think you are on team bear in the skewed debate we have here just because you think the Brooklyn housing market may slump for the near future. that has never been the dividing line on this site.”

    Slopefarm, it’s more than thinking the Brooklyn housing market might slump. I do think a major crash in Brooklyn RE might occur and I’m thinking that a severe global recession is more and more a possibility. Of course I hope I’m wrong, but we might be in for a very very bumpy road ahead.

    On a lighter note, are you coming next Thursday?

  3. Good points slope. I have long tried to frame the Bear/Bull debate in much the same way on account of the fact that I had no financial theory behind my purchase, just the need for more space. However, where I relate to Biff’s post is in adjusting my expectations for how bad things are going to get. Nothing in the current climate makes me feel like the economy is anywhere near hitting bottom and recovering. That being said, I still am glad to have a house and I still get giddy at walking around in it and planting stuff in the yard etc. So all the lifestyle reasons are still valid for me. I still see no reason to sell for many years so the long term plan hasn’t shifted so much as my understanding of how fucked up the economy is now is more thorough.

  4. Dave I just don’t want get caught in a Gold Crash! I can see Gold getting whacked real hard when the DX gets the Moonshot. I think people are going to need dollars real soon, Oh Well happy hunting…

    The What

    Someday this war is gonna end..

  5. Gold’s a tough one What. One thing for sure, it is NOT trading as an inflation hedge. The “gold bugs” trade this on technicals and the chart looks good from when the price bottomed in November….higher highs and higher lows. It’s bouncing off of 900 now and probably headed to 1,000 again where it may run into resistance. If it breaks through 1,000 it’ll go to 1,200 or 1,300.

    Gold is being bought/sold on the technicals, os a hedge against currencies (which many people believe are worthless) and general political socio-economic malaise. There is far more gold controlled now by financial instruments (GLD) than in the actual hard market. That’s what makes it volatile.

  6. wasder and Biff, the terms of brownstoner bull v. bear debate have never been whether Brooklyn hyousing prices will go down. Here, the bears predict major crash in Brooklyn RE prices and depression-like tanking of US economy. The bulls largely predict a soft recessionary drop follewed by recovery. DIBS is at the far bullish end on stock prices, predicting a major advance sometime within the year. But I don’t think you are on team bear in the skewed debate we have here just because you think the Brooklyn housing market may slump for the near future. that has never been the dividing line on this site.

  7. With all the layoffs on Wall Street a recent event, it’s doubtful many of them will find jobs even paying 1/2 as much, what do you think is going to happen to those who were over extended? Just read the blog dabagirls.com to see how some are struggling. Besides, it’s quite amusing that they are so ruffled over not being able to afford Fendi bags anymore.

  8. I’d love to see that stats on that 30%…

    … how many were second home? how many were spec houses people were hoping to flip? how many were bought with subprime loans?

    The article had this quote regarding the Federal bailout:

    “To qualify for a refinanced loan, applicants will have to fully document income with pay stubs and tax returns, and sign an affidavit attesting to “financial hardship,” according to Treasury.”

    I’d bet that if the requirement were this stringent for the initial mortgage at least half of that 30% wouldn’t have qualified in the first place.

    We all know the foreclosure stats look horrible, they do, but I’d love to see the statistics on people being foreclosed that were truly viable and vetted borrowers on primary residences to begin with.

    Foreclosures on speculators, second homes, unqualified buyers, etc all shake out in the overall statistic. That 30% would be far lower, and the economy far better, had bad loans not been written in the first place. No bailout should happen, the banks and borrowers got themselves in this position, let them get themselves out.

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