U.S. Foreclosure Filings Rise 30 Percent
March 12 (Bloomberg) — Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed 30 percent in February from a year earlier as the worsening economy thwarted efforts by the government and lenders to prevent homeowners from losing property, RealtyTrac Inc. said. A total of 290,631 homes received a default or auction notice or were seized by the lender,…
Pierre, of course some areas will see 50 percent or more declines. Bushwick/Ocean Hill is already off 40 percent. In the last few weeks, I’ve seen three townhouses for sale in the $300s, and while of they are fire casualties and tear downs, this is how the slide to the $400s started. I would not be at all surprised if these areas decline to $350,000 or so over the course of 2009. In Ocean Hill, this is where prices were pre-2006.
But after freezing with terror in October and seriously contemplating whether my neighbors and I could defend our street with guns and roadblocks if necessary (I know, it sounds crazy), I’ve been getting more bullish since January. I’m getting more and more convinced that prices of townhouses in places like Park Slope will barely decline. Maybe 20 percent. I bet they’ll flatline for a long time.
This is assuming no major shocks, like the US defaulting, which could cause a Soviet Union-style collapse.
I think the economy could be even worse. We really need to focus on getting off the credit-bubble treadmill and create a self-sustaining economy, maybe one with more exports. I don’t think Washington or most economists are on the same page yet. I think they still want to encourage more debt-fueled expansion.
@ Biff and Wasder:
“In other words, I’ve moved over the last few months quite swiftly from Team Bull to Team Bear (while still holding out hope for a recovery from this mess)”.
Biff we respect your reasoning and position here. The problem is quite a few others haven’t made this obvious paradigm shift and keep making bellicose comments based in DENIAL at everyone who states the obvious…RE has fallen and will continue to do so significantly in NYC and some areas will see 50% or greater declines !
Other folks are struggling with all the info and are about as consistent as our recent weather…a certain PS resident comes to mind:) But this is understanding since the fear of losing so much value and investment can be overwhelming @ times.
We on a personal level have been skeptical from the early on but not entirely so until wall st collapsed..the What’s prediction was right and the rest is history.
Now the rift between DIBS and Cornerbodega is an example of extremes since one person is still bullish about brownstones (as if townhouses exist in an isolation economically) while the other guy appears to think the world is coming to an end…the lack of civility makes it worse but comical also:)
Dear Mr. What and others (if you are still reading today)–
About financials: What do you think of this? It was emailed to me with the note that it is only one man’s opinion. Do you think things will go this far? I’m new to this.
The G 20s Secret Debt Solution:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996
Eeny meeny?
Interesting post Whuh. And I like the phrase life utilities. This notion is what is making me feel ok about the possibility that my house could lose half of its value in the near term. It is still my house and one that I like a lot. Hope you are happy with whichever you choose between eeny and meeny.
a.) is a slam dunk. b.) can happen but very slowly. You’d have time to react.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Loving the new comity, and let me only add: I’m exactly caught between thinking the What is right, and in a deflationary bust everyone needs dollars; and thinking the fed balance sheet is saying “Inflate or die.” I love Brooklyn, and want to put my equity in it. But I can never decide whether a.) my dollars will rally so hard against RE that buying now will make me look stupid, or b.) they’ll collapse so badly, Argentina style, I’ll wish I at least had a house, with its massive life utilities, to show for the boom years. Eeny meeny?
“(No I can’t, wasder!)”
That’s funny, on numerous levels.
“On a lighter note, are you coming next Thursday?”
I hope so slope. These days all the more reason to get together and have some fun.
“and I still get giddy at walking around in it and planting stuff in the yard etc.”
Aaaahhhhhh! Wish I had that again. (Whether owned or rented.)
“What do you mean by ‘people are going to need dollars real soon?'”
I can’t speak for The What (No I can’t, wasder!) but I think he means we will have a deflationary spiral. I would agree with that. And if so, gold will take a short term dive. But the US stimulii will eventually kick in and hyperinflate. Gold will resurrect and explode through $1,600/oz (today’s dollars).
***Bid half off peak comps***