Six Months Later: Open House Picks 6/15/07
Interesting. Open House Picks 6/15/07 [Brownstoner]
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Interesting. Open House Picks 6/15/07 [Brownstoner]
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OK Prof Rob,
I hear you. You are probably right.
“Hence ProfRobert, the market can only continue to do the same things because, in life things either stay the same, or get better.”
No, I didn’t say that. The RE market will go up and down at various times. The entirety of my point is that things appear to me, highly subjectively, to be better than a year ago. That’s all.
I suspect there will be a dip in the market, just like after 9/11, for example, but over a long period (i.e., 10 years or more), I think New York City real estate is a good investment. If it ever were to tank permanently, it would mean something Seriously Wrong had happened in other areas of the economy. I’m not saying that can’t happen either (see, e.g., Crash of ’29), but *if* that happened, I’d rather have my money in my house with an affordable mortgage than in the markets that would have melted down first. The upside for me of owning is *much* greater than the downside of putting my money in equity or debt markets while renting.
Plus, I love living in this house, pain in the ass though it may be at times.
The current financial mess is one created by bankers and it will be resolved by bankers. It is the fortieth such mess that has occured over the past eighty years. i’m not a banker, i don’t want that life, it is too boring and stultifying, so i see no reason why I should worry a minute about it.
I will let the learned “The What” worry about such matters. I am glad he is on the case, better him than me.
“Therefore there will be strong demand for the scarce blue chip properties…”
Not until prices drop. Which they WILL.
1:48
You are right. However in your example, Westminster is a mess – way over priced. This softening is spreading to Brooklyn.
The solid yuppie neighborhoods (Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope…) with low inventories are doing okay. It seems that the more working class/fringe neighborhoods are going to have problems first. Sunset Park, Bay Ridge, Bed Stuy, PLG.
It seems to me that a lot of marginal properties in solid neighborhoods are on the market. Therefore there will be strong demand for the scarce blue chip properties…
I’ll be moving my safehouse there, 5:49.
“The banks will likely need some more time before they are comfortable playing in the same sandbox again and who can blame them,” said Kevin Giddis, managing director, Morgan Keegan & Co.
“Each day one more bank comes clean that the subprime issue is deeper, wider and hairier than they originally thought or were providing cash for.”
6:31 – Wow. Put down the Kool-Aid. Seriously, your “predictions” are laughable.
I’m leaving my safehouse now, 5:49.