Risky Business in Some Brooklyn Nabes?
This week New York magazine looks into its real estate crystal ball and sees all sorts of doom ‘n’ gloom on the horizon for Bed-Stuy, Bushwick and, to a lesser extent, Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Of all the neighborhoods profiled in the mag’s Neighborhood Watch feature, in fact, Bed-Stuy and Bushwick are pegged the riskiest. (They…
This week New York magazine looks into its real estate crystal ball and sees all sorts of doom ‘n’ gloom on the horizon for Bed-Stuy, Bushwick and, to a lesser extent, Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Of all the neighborhoods profiled in the mag’s Neighborhood Watch feature, in fact, Bed-Stuy and Bushwick are pegged the riskiest. (They receive a collective risk rating of 9 out of a possible 10.) According to the article, since the two areas are subprime hotbeds, there’s a good chance inventory is going to be flooding their markets–an assessment that jibes with the downturn in sales Bed-Stuy recently posted. In Williamsburg and Greenpoint, meanwhile, the supply of new construction may be outstripping demand. One local broker says Burg prices have sunk by about 10 percent lately. The article also makes the case that properties in Greenpoint, and areas of Williamsburg not within a stone’s throw of the Bedford L, are going to be less of a hot ticket as “creative types” find exotic mortgages harder to come by. These factors combine for a risk score of 7. (The rating for “established brownstone Brooklyn” is, unsurprisingly, a much rosier 2.5, based on the fact that areas like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope attract affluent, stable buyers.) While Bed-Stuy and Bushwick are undoubtedly feeling more subprime fallout than other neighborhoods, it seems a little premature to predict that demand and prices in Williamsburg are about to take a serious nosedive. You agree with the pessimistic prognostications?
Neighborhood Watch [New York]
Big Slowdown Seen in Brooklyn’s Poorest Zones [Brownstoner]
Photo of Bed-Stuy houses by GKJarvis.
“…what’s life without alittle risk?”
Fabulous. But we’re talking about a lot of risk.
“Where in Bedford Stuyvesant is this downturn last I checked streets such as Jefferson, Hancock, Halsey, MacDonough Stuyvesant even Greene Ave the real estate was just fine…”
C’mon 9:45. We’re talking about what’s going to happen not what’s already happened. Hence the risk ratings. In 2001 you would have said the same thing about speculated appreciation, “last time I checked, Bed Stuy still sucks…”.
As I’m looking to buy something in Greenpoint (after renting for 13 years), I’m really getting a kick out of this article.
/ G train FTW!
// Which message board is this again?
I agree with you, 11:32. I only wish the word “pioneer” could disappear from the vocabulary.
It strongly implies that either they bravely went where no one had gone before, ala Star Trek, or that they plonked themselves down amidst native peoples, and took over, ala the history of this country.
Hmmm, might not be such a bad word after all. But it does suggest that those who were there before them don’t matter, nor do their culture and traditions, and that is just too condescending and wrong.
“You agree with the pessimistic prognostications?”
Yup. But not the optimistic ones. They say Park Slope is hedged by a mixed demographic (bankers, teachers, writers). That just seems like a contradiction to me. A mixed demographic would suggest diverse socio-economic conditions where many homeowners/renters(to support these high rents) might survive a recession and many might not. It was the teachers and writers that made the slope popular. But it was the bankers that bankrolled the appreciation. Take the banker’s bonuses/jobs away and the the teachers/writers are supposed to support these gastrinomical home prices?
They go on to say that…
“The locals are also stable in another way: Though plenty of residents cashed out during the recent run-up, many more have been here a while, which means not everyone bought at the top.”
They may not have bought at the top, but did they cash-out-refi at the top? Did they get caught up in the wealth effect?
Then…
“In other Brooklyn hot spots, Gallant says, quite a few recent buyers could soon “wake up and say, What was I thinking?†”
I’m betting that the category of recent buyers who ask themselves that question will span all nabes, even Brooklyn Heights.
I give Park Slope a “5” at best.
On the north side of Lincoln, you’re most likely to be knifed or stabbed. On the south side of Lincoln, your more likely to be shot.
Montrose Morris, what you describe about Bed-Stuy is so true… I have multiple neighbors on my block that are middle class people who bought a house in Bed-Stuy in the 80s. And then they bought a second one, and a third one… They are teachers, bus drivers, etc, and today they are doing very well, they have a great place to live and a significant rental income. Those people are also the ones that have been a involved for a long time in the community board and block associations, and made Bed-Stuy a better place to live.
The golden rule of real estate = last up, first down. It’s not personal.
bren:
11:32 here. i always appreciate your posts in general. i’ve noticed you always have some great comments.
thanks.