Real Estate: The New Obscenity?
The lead article in the real estate section of The New York Times this weekend attempts to make the case that real estate has gone from Topic No. 1 to Topic Non Grata in the last six months. Nobody wants to talk about it,” The Times quotes one hedge fund manager as saying. We’re not…
The lead article in the real estate section of The New York Times this weekend attempts to make the case that real estate has gone from Topic No. 1 to Topic Non Grata in the last six months. Nobody wants to talk about it,” The Times quotes one hedge fund manager as saying. We’re not so sure that’s the case. People may be acting more discreetly when they bring it up, but, in our experience, it’s still just as much on everyone’s minds as before, although now, instead of being obsesses with how much the value of their house has gone up, it’s all about how far the value has fallen. Have you noticed a decrease in the amount people are talking about real estate or just a different tone?
Don’t Even Say the Words [NY Times]
Photo by solupine
“…people flock into the market because they begin to believe that rates will CONTINUE to rise and they get scared into buying.”
Doesn’t matter. As long as Case-Shiller stays deep in the red, its a losing proposition because the effect of the higher rates has to play itself out. If this scramble to lock in rates happens after Case-Shiller has stabilized, then yeah, strike while the iron’s hot. But it all comes down to that index, coupled with a few market reports here and there and a little antedoctal evidence (index confirmation/verification/reality check).
I don’t think Adam is that old. Even if he is, he hasn’t lived through a boom/bust like this one. What could he tell me that the historical record doesn’t? Besides, aside from tax spikes, wasn’t it higher interest rates that tripped the 80’s/90’s bust?
***Bid half off peak comps***
Luckily I don’t know anyone who bought recently and now need to sell. I agree, it would be very uncomfortable to talk about these issues with them.
“igher rates are detrimental to prices and therefore add to the magnitude of the already downward pressure. So, no math needed. It’s an automatic adjustment. Imagine prices stabilizing while rates are frozen. If you then raised rates, prices would begin falling again. As a practical/realistic matter, what we are likely to see before the bottom is in, is prices decelerating even faster when rates do go north. In closing, I think it’s safe to wait for the absolute bottom (Zero change in Case-Shiller Index from last year) no matter where interest rates are.”
Retard Translation: Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah My head hurts Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah ……..
“hat has typically happened in the past when rates were low for awhile and then STARTED to rise, is that people flock into the market because they begin to believe that rates will CONTINUE to rise and they get scared into buying.”
Thanks Dave!
“Ask Adam about that phenomenon.”
Adam is working at Trader Joe’s now. The new FHA guidelines killed his business..
The What (Where are the rest of the retards??)
Someday this war is gonna end…
“Still good things to talk about.”
Operative word: ‘Still’.
I’m with MM @ 2:46. Very selective around who I ‘preach the gospel’ to. Even those I’ve warned repeatedly. It gets real quite when RE comes up. BTW, that photo in the thread article is priceless.
***Bid half off peak comps***
But BHO, what has typically happened in the past when rates were low for awhile and then STARTED to rise, is that people flock into the market because they begin to believe that rates will CONTINUE to rise and they get scared into buying. Ask Adam about that phenomenon.
“BHO this retard is reading the Lis Pendens stuccoed to his door…”
Everybody’s looking at me. I tried to hold it in.
Spot on, lechacal. Waiting is in effect saving for a larger % downpayment. You don’t even need income. Let the prices come to you.
I had an ephiphany this weekend. Up until now, I kind of bought into the idea that you have to do the math with higher interest rates to optimize a bottom buy. But I am now regurgitating this notion. Higher rates are detrimental to prices and therefore add to the magnitude of the already downward pressure. So, no math needed. It’s an automatic adjustment. Imagine prices stabilizing while rates are frozen. If you then raised rates, prices would begin falling again. As a practical/realistic matter, what we are likely to see before the bottom is in, is prices decelerating even faster when rates do go north. In closing, I think it’s safe to wait for the absolute bottom (Zero change in Case-Shiller Index from last year) no matter where interest rates are.
***Bid half off peak comps***
What…that’s just grasping at straws. That’ll get thrown out of court so fast its ridiculous. To actually discuss the issue though you’d have to start by saying they were shareholders and they could vote as shareholders and if they didn’t like what was going on they could have sold their shares.
Thats like suing your parents for your poor upbringing. Not yours in particular but you know what I mean.
I think how much and how you talk about real estate these days depends on who you’re talking to. With friends of mine who are renting, or sold pre-crash, we do talk about it a lot – and mainly our talk is how the prices need to come down further, and the opportunities that will probably arise, albeit with some more waiting (since the correction is just beginning). But I certainly keep silent around friends who currently are trying to sell, or who bought recently, since I think it could be a painful subject for them.
Snark…if you’re not going to add something intelligent to this intelligent conversation we’re all having here then get your sorry ass back obver to the OT 🙂