northside-piers-021009.jpgThe price cuts at Northside Piers that we first reported here and then again here have been picked up by Bloomberg. And, according to the news service, the reductions (two-bedrooms in the waterfront development are now as low as $691,000) are working: Contracts have gone out on five of the remaining 60 units in the last week. There is a stirring going on in the market,” said CBHK CEO David Michonski said, “but only at a lower price point. GMAP


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  1. Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In

    http://www.theonion.com/content/news/recession_plagued_nation_demands

    July 14, 2008 | Issue 44•2

    WASHINGTON—A panel of top business leaders testified before Congress about the worsening recession Monday, demanding the government provide Americans with a new irresponsible and largely illusory economic bubble in which to invest.

    “What America needs right now is not more talk and long-term strategy, but a concrete way to create more imaginary wealth in the very immediate future,” said Thomas Jenkins, CFO of the Boston-area Jenkins Financial Group, a bubble-based investment firm. “We are in a crisis, and that crisis demands an unviable short-term solution.”

  2. joe…the people i’m talking about don’t use headhunters. Investment banks are not gone for good. Someone has to arrange the financings and do the CYA work on M&A, etc, etc, etc.

    There are hedge funds bringing in new money as we speak. Ask cornerbodeaga. He apparently knows everything.

  3. on the prospects for bankers reinventing themselves — I think a lot of them really think it’s over. head hunters are telling some candidates not to even bother looking. Investment banks are literally gone for good, a third of hedge funds are gone, comp won’t be back for a few years…people might just reinvent themselves as teachers, rock climbers, or san francisco dot-commers. A lot of people have just enough dough left to go start over doing something less hateful and more fun.

  4. > “all these people leaving Merrill, Lehman & Bear will be back in business soon reinventing themselves.”

    Creating another bubble, siphoning off billions for themselves, and leaving the taxpayers holding the bag when it all blows up?

    Woohoo, can’t wait.

  5. the cultural point is totally true — japan had trouble letting failing companies fail. but on the population point — I think their retirement wave is a decade or two ahead of ours, right? so we are just entering a period of related stress.

    how about an L argument based on our own history: Robert Shiller dug up real (infl adjusted) home prices from 1890 to 2005, and found an average 2% annual return. then starting in 2000, prices doubled in about 5 years. I realize this is not NY specific, but it points to a correction and some kind of revised expectations about returns.

  6. There are also a few major cultural issues. Once Japanese fail at a business it is much harder for them to reinvent themselves. There isn’t a lot of innovation over there unless its in the form of perfecting manufacturing processes. Also, the population pyramid had a lot to do with this as the country was top heavy with old people who are by definition savers not spenders.

    I’m saying it’s not going to take as long and all these people leaving Merrill, Lehman & Bear will be back in business soon reinventing themselves.

  7. thanks. for the non-wonks, buying convertable preferreds basically means restoring bank capital in exchange for some ownership, which our government seems to be on top of. however I don’t agree that it was japan’s first response. they lowered IR and increased spending in the 90s, which text-book econ says you are supposed to do. I agree the US gets a second-mover advantage & we are ahead in that respect.

    But even with our TARP program I think we still have the problem that we’re expecting banks to lend money when borrowers AND collateral have never looked worse. Plus, banks need the money just to stay solvent. the govt probably wouldn’t advise an individual bank to lend in these circumstances if the problem were actually limited to one bank. it’s a paradox and kind of an unworkable situation

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