Outlook 2007: Longs and Shorts
Note: We’re moving this post up from yesterday to encourage more input.Welcome to the third annual installment of our market prognostications. Last year, we picked Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens to outperform and Williamsburg to slump, which in retrospect look like pretty good calls. As for next year, our eyes will be on the areas…
Note: We’re moving this post up from yesterday to encourage more input.Welcome to the third annual installment of our market prognostications. Last year, we picked Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens to outperform and Williamsburg to slump, which in retrospect look like pretty good calls. As for next year, our eyes will be on the areas bordering Prospect Park that have the location and housing stock on their sides but have yet to attract widespread interest from the gentrifying crowd. We’d also be front-running the newly Brooklyn-focused Landmarks Preservation Commission by looking in spots like the soon-to-be-designated Crown Heights North. On the downside, it’s hard to see how increasing supply of run-of-the-mill condos coming on line in Williamsburg won’t continue to put downward pressure on prices. We’re not as wary about the effect of Atlantic Yards on surrounding real estate as some and continue to think that Prospect Heights has a lot to offer. As has been mentioned before, quality brownstones should continue to find buyers while those in more marginal neighborhoods and lacking architectural detail will likely have a tough time. Looking back on last year’s post, we can be thankful that we got our wish of a gourmet market (sorta) in the form of Choice. Now if we could just get a friggin’ cheese shop we’d be really psyched.
Market Predictions for 2006 [Brownstoner]
You’re right anonymous 3:54.
If there’s is one thing that has been proved over the years, it’s that New Yorkers don’t like to live in high rise buildings in heavily trafficked, commercial area. PS, given the developer’s plan for AY, the same people who will be living in the “affordable” apartments would be considered wealthy by IRS.
I can only speak for myself and other house-hunters I know, but I don’t think ANY “new” areas will be hot. In these uncertain times, when the market is still very much in flux, I’d only put money into a sure thing. The people I know looking for places have all ruled out any “fringe” areas, including those near the park. Betting on gentrification is way too risky right now. So I’d bet that the hot areas of ’06 will continue to be hot, and all the others will slump.
To 3:51:
I think the idea is that those who rent will not be able to profit from the inevitable and unalterable rise in property values hilariously described by 3:42. Consequently, the author of 3:42 and the rest of us who own property in Brooklyn can expect to be resented by renters. Guess that makes them both renters and resenters…lol
3:54: probably same types who’ve bought in One Hanson and the Smith St. condos across Atlantic. It’s the same area and likely the same price range, right?
To anon 3:20 PM and AY as luxury housing. Given the environment – endless traffic jams, riff raff types heading to sporting events, fast food and chain restaurants and bars cater to them, poor people in the ‘afforable units’ – when you put it all together is this the kind of place one would seek luxury housing. Are traffic and noise selling points in units where you always have to have your windows closed. Are chucky cheese and wing joints what draws the well heeled? What are they thinking? Have never understood who was going to live in the apts other than the affordable ones.
Long: carpet baggers
Short: middle class
I can’t understand why Downtown Brooklyn isn’t more popular (in + around fulton St.). It reminds me of Soho + Tribeca in the 1970s. At night it’s just dead. There are a lot of large buildings that look like they’d be great loft conversions. It’s centrally located and is surrouned by neighborhoods (Brooklyn Heights, Carroll Gardens Boerum Hill, Dumbo) which have appreciated incredibly over the past 20 years.
Anon 3:42pm,
Hell has no fury like a renter scorned….
Brownstoner owners, you have nothing to fear.
Suppose a large meteorite crashes into Brooklyn tomorrow, destroying everything. Not to worry. You’d have merely to sit back and watch as your brownstones rebuild themselves.
Suppose that 90% of the population of the earth is wiped out tomorrow by a plague. Don’t sweat it! The remaining ten percent will be willing to spend 100% more to live in brownstone Brooklyn.
There is absolutely nothing under the sun that can negatively impact brownstone values. Absolutely nothing. Ever.
All the talk you hear about “gentrification” in Brooklyn…don’t buy a word of it; for it suggests that there was a time when brownstone Brooklyn was not gentrified. There was no such time. It is merely an urban myth. Property values have always soared in Brooklyn. They cannot do anything else. They are not affected by the local, state or national economies. Their value will always be on the rise and this cannot be changed by anything.
It’s a good day to live in Brooklyn!