Outlook 2007: Longs and Shorts
Note: We’re moving this post up from yesterday to encourage more input.Welcome to the third annual installment of our market prognostications. Last year, we picked Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens to outperform and Williamsburg to slump, which in retrospect look like pretty good calls. As for next year, our eyes will be on the areas…
Note: We’re moving this post up from yesterday to encourage more input.Welcome to the third annual installment of our market prognostications. Last year, we picked Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens to outperform and Williamsburg to slump, which in retrospect look like pretty good calls. As for next year, our eyes will be on the areas bordering Prospect Park that have the location and housing stock on their sides but have yet to attract widespread interest from the gentrifying crowd. We’d also be front-running the newly Brooklyn-focused Landmarks Preservation Commission by looking in spots like the soon-to-be-designated Crown Heights North. On the downside, it’s hard to see how increasing supply of run-of-the-mill condos coming on line in Williamsburg won’t continue to put downward pressure on prices. We’re not as wary about the effect of Atlantic Yards on surrounding real estate as some and continue to think that Prospect Heights has a lot to offer. As has been mentioned before, quality brownstones should continue to find buyers while those in more marginal neighborhoods and lacking architectural detail will likely have a tough time. Looking back on last year’s post, we can be thankful that we got our wish of a gourmet market (sorta) in the form of Choice. Now if we could just get a friggin’ cheese shop we’d be really psyched.
Market Predictions for 2006 [Brownstoner]
So DON’T buy a brownstone then, 7:51. Give it a rest.
Is there a reason why so many readers on this site hate Williamsburg so much?
sorry , bad math. at 8:23 I meant to say that it my brownstone is worth almost double what it was 5 years ago. But I was right that is has depreciated by about 10% in the last year.
7:51, you’re either joking or your out of your mind. The value of my brownstone dropped by about 10% in the last year. Yes, it is still almost 50% higher than it was 5 years ago, and yes I imagine it will increase sometime in the future. But it sure as hell has and can depreciate.
The other thing to contemplate with the Atlantic Yards is the need for the developer to sell units there. That will mean a big marketing campaign, his need in a falling market to underprice all competition to make his units move (FCR will effectively control the market’s prices when they dump so many thousands of units on the market), and also their need to market themselves as different housing stock than what you or I might be selling with a resale. Also if he thinks that the market is going to get rough Ratner will have to throw in other ammenities to get his units moving. Sure the older housing stock is better looking than most new stuff. But Ratner is going to have to do whatever it takes to move units and he will price accordingly and market accordingly and if that means using his PR BS to make our neighborhoods less good, less safe, less prestigious, whatever that evil little man will do it. So it’s all well and fine to sit back and look at the equity you’ve built up and think you are safe from market forces. That is only true if you don’t have to see in a market that is controlled by somebody who is sitting on a goldmine that he bought for much, much less than market rate and is totally subsidized by NYS taxpayers in the form of bonds and other incentives for him. You just cannot compete against that. Sorry.
If it makes you feel better, 2:56pm, yes it’s happening in other cities. In Minneapolis when I was back there a couple years ago I could not BELIEVE the prices for downtown lofts, and for older houses in the metro area. Downtown prices there approach NYC prices believe it or not. Also Seattle got really high for the cool, historic areas. So did Atlanta. I think the general trend of people migrating back inside cities from the suburbs, due to insanely congested freeways, is driving up prices everywhere for in-town properties.
“the quick change at Court St. in queens from the G to the E/V gets you to midtown manhattan in 20 minute”
You call that a quick change? Are you being serious?
man, all this talk of park slope melding into gowanus kind of makes me sick. All the ‘hoods of brooklyn are just smashing together, pushing out the residents so some more rich white people can come in and take ove.r btw, i’m white. just noticing that there is NOWHERE affordable to live – in terms of neighborhoods already gentrified. i am too old to pioneer and don’t want to. i don’t want to push out anyone else. is this just a brooklyn problem? feels like it.
It doesn’t Matter that the G doesn’t go to Manhattan. From Some points in Bed-Stuy, the quick change at Court St. in queens from the G to the E/V gets you to midtown manhattan in 20 minutes.