Outlook 2007: Longs and Shorts
Note: We’re moving this post up from yesterday to encourage more input.Welcome to the third annual installment of our market prognostications. Last year, we picked Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens to outperform and Williamsburg to slump, which in retrospect look like pretty good calls. As for next year, our eyes will be on the areas…
Note: We’re moving this post up from yesterday to encourage more input.Welcome to the third annual installment of our market prognostications. Last year, we picked Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens to outperform and Williamsburg to slump, which in retrospect look like pretty good calls. As for next year, our eyes will be on the areas bordering Prospect Park that have the location and housing stock on their sides but have yet to attract widespread interest from the gentrifying crowd. We’d also be front-running the newly Brooklyn-focused Landmarks Preservation Commission by looking in spots like the soon-to-be-designated Crown Heights North. On the downside, it’s hard to see how increasing supply of run-of-the-mill condos coming on line in Williamsburg won’t continue to put downward pressure on prices. We’re not as wary about the effect of Atlantic Yards on surrounding real estate as some and continue to think that Prospect Heights has a lot to offer. As has been mentioned before, quality brownstones should continue to find buyers while those in more marginal neighborhoods and lacking architectural detail will likely have a tough time. Looking back on last year’s post, we can be thankful that we got our wish of a gourmet market (sorta) in the form of Choice. Now if we could just get a friggin’ cheese shop we’d be really psyched.
Market Predictions for 2006 [Brownstoner]
I agree that PLG, Sunset Park, etc are not going to see any increases this year. Any area that did not “take off” in the 5 years of Boom certainly won’t do so now that the market is shakier and people are more conservative in their investments. The people I know who are looking are all super-cautious about where and what they buy.
So funny that FG is now considered a “safe bet”. Only a year ago it was considered to have major quality of life problems by many on this board. Good for FG- love the neighborhood. Don’t really think it changed that much -crime rate, etc…, people just got used to it being considered OK to live there. Perceptions change and things turn into safe bets.
I will go ahead and jump on the Victorian Flatbush bandwagon. I do think it will be THE hot area in 2007, though it’s plenty hot right now.
I also agree with Mr. B that parts of Crown Heights will take off.
I’m going to say I’m short on the areas around AY, even though I’m open to changing my mind about it. Some of you make interesting arguments to the effect that AY will be good (or at any rate, not bad) for property values. I agree that population density ordinarily correlates with increased property values. However, dense populations usually have the benefit of an infrastructure capable of handling such density. Such an infrastructure is largely lacking in the case of AY, and lacking to quite an unprecedented degree. I think the consequences of this could be very serious.
But again, I’m open to being persuaded otherwise and I’m not an AY basher.
My favorite bugaboo incident in Clinton Hill: trim blonde Mama having an animated conversation on her cell phone as she aggressively pushes her bugaboo straight through the middle of an ongoing drug deal. Literally. Hands were extended to proffer and receive the goods, and she shoved the bugaboo right down the middle on her way to Choice. Dealer and customer dropped their jaws and stepped back as she careened through, apparently oblivious to the fact that both were packing heat. Now there’s a portent for the future.
Outlook for 2007….
SHORT EVERYTHING!!!
2007 is the year of the pig. How appropriate that the pigs will be slaughtered.
Every neighborhood will experience price declines! Its not about long/short… Its about shorter and shorter.
I think the multicultural melting pot of racies, classes, and different mixing of peoples from around the world will suffer as the city become more gentrified.I think in a few years New York City will become something like Boston, except that it will be populated by only the rich.
Still some saftey issues? We are living in a post 9/11 world. I’ll take my chances with the neighborhood thug ( whether in Victorian Flatbush, Park Slope, Bed-Sty, SoHo, etc.) over some terrorist (eco or otherwise) anyday! We live in New York for crying out loud. Everywhere has a safety issue.
Ditmas Park and Victorian Flatbush have some upside left per square foot, that’s for sure. Some of the best homes in the city. But just watch which block you choose, and make sure your neighbor did not convert his Victorian into a multi-family like the house on the corner of E19th and Dorchester Road. I’ve lived in the nabe for over 30 years and it has steadily improved but there are still some saftey issues.
AY will cause nightmarish traffic getting into Manhattan, but may also mean that don\’t have to go there as often. Imagine living and working in Brooklyn…
Meanwhile, I wouldn\’t read much into Jon Brownstoner or the din created by its claque of kooks. There\’s a lot of mindless chatter on that blog – most of it posted anonymously.
Posted by: Ed | December 30, 2006 at 08:20 PM