Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Not too shabby! Open House Picks 9/18/09 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Comment: Not too shabby!
Open House Picks 9/18/09 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
360 5 Street – sold for 1.875 in Feb 2008 – arguably right around the peak of the peak here in Bklyn.
Sorry DIBS, but how are your assumptions not based on probabilities? Your certitude is silly. Ugh, why bother – I’m signing off or I’ll be late for my appointment!
your little story at 327p is an example of cherry picking you so often accuse others of. just saying.
any rate, i’d like to see that *comp* if you have an address.
and dibs is right, no one is arguing we’re at peak pricing. i’ve been saying things look stable (since 12 mos) to upward trend (last 6) with pricing bottoming at 10-20% off depending on class (th/condo/coop and turnkey/needs work).
Oh, and I forgot to mention in my comps post (about the 3 story 15′ house that sold for over 1.8) that the 7th St house above was better location (between 6/7 Ave). 7th St house was not a small house BTW – about 17×45, and 4 stories – so almost 3000 feet.
So MM, you’re basing all your assumptions on chickens coming home to roost????
Assumptions based on calculated probabilities are the worst assumptions you can make. You will almost ALWAYS be wrong.
The market has bottomed.
Look DIBS, we can talk til we’re blue in the face (and I actually have to go now) but the fact is, your predictions are clearly coming from a place of wishful thinking. Granted, mine are too albeit girded by a lot more press about the situation in my favor. But even you admit that an increase in house prices by 2012 only has a 33% chance, so according to your logic, 66% chance that prices won’t increase by then. The fed gov’t has just poured TONS of $$ into the banking industry and interest rates are historically low – we’ll see what happens when all the price supports wear off, and the chickens come home to roost with interest rates.
1) no record of any mortgage on acris. mortgages get recorded. you can adjust for brazilian inflation, this guy still made money. no losses.
2) who knows but that house is not that big. i’d say it’s 10% off peak comp, but just a guess. no losses.
3) who brags about contract prices. wtf are you talking about. really. who brags? show an example. personally, i’ve never seen a principal or agent talk about the contract price in a media article. not even in a blog.
4) 775 is > than 50% higher than 2004 price. something seriously malicious will need to occur to get there again. no losses.
sorry to burst your bear bubble, but these are solid #s.
Just to demonstrate the insanity of the peak – a 15′ 3 story house between 5/6 in PS sold pre-crash for over 1.8! So a 17′ 4 story one selling for less is well under that kind of nuttiness. I do see a boomlet of optimism right now so maybe that will indeed be reflected in the 1st Qtr Prudential report but really, where are the fundamentals to sustain this? Antidope, you actually prove a point I’ve made many times which is that, even at big discounts, many owners will still do just fine, given the crazy run up between 1998-2008.
MMhere’s what will happen…
One of a few things….
1. The economy will continue to gradually improve albeit with small hiccups along the way. Brooklyn brownstones will be selling above peak comps in 2012. 33% probability
2. There will be a larger hiccup which would be Greece PLUS Spain PLUS Italy & Ireland defaulting…not just Greece alone. 33% probability
3. Israel will start a war with Iran. Oil will go to $200. 33% probability.