Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Better than some weeks! Open House Picks 4/10/09 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]

Comment: Better than some weeks!
Open House Picks 4/10/09 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
“big shot investment bankers”
query: are these the same dudes that a) invented securitization, b) invented sub-prime asset class, c) said real estate prices would never synchronize negatively on national scale, or d) the other other big shot investment bankers that we should listen too?
iron balls, who knows what will happen, but I will say your opinion is worth as much as the duds on wall st.
I’ve talked to some big shot investment bankers who think it could take fifty plus years for the real estate market to recover. Apparently, things are much worse “behind the curtain” than the media reports.
The NYC real estate market lagged the nation wide trend by a few years. Most people will agree that we peaked in August of 2008, one year before lehman’s bankruptcy. Real estate cycles last 5 years on average and we just finished with year one of the process.
It’ll take years for the real estate market to bottom out.
In five years, prices will be half what they are today.
And that’s still a huge price increase from a decade ago.
They don’t seem to be dropping that much. Aren’t family size apts in Park Slope still $3500? Aren’t one-bedroom floor throughs in Cobble Hill, Fort Greene, etc., still $1900?
“I would be surprised if areas in the city with top-rated public schools drop so much in price that owning costs the same as renting.”
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The problem is that rents are also dropping at the same time so you have two moving targets, one chasing the other’s tail, or some would say “race to the bottom”.
“Real estate bottoms take 5-7 years to complete typically. We’re in the early stages, and downward-trending stagnation is likely the next leg down. Patience and smart bidding and negotation will be rewarded.”
We’re about 3.5 years in, if you count from mid-2006, which is when people with subprime mortgages in Brooklyn and elsewhere in the US started defaulting on their mortgages.
“I am thinking we had an initial 20% drop which will be followed by another slow decline of another 10-30% more, but hey, who knows. I wouldn’t buy right now unless its a real steal.”
I agree, this is a very likely scenerio.
I just bought a place though that’s slightly cheaper than renting. It’s affordable but the schools are not considered good.
I think it’s all about the schools. Even with terrible unemployment and a real estate crash, I would be surprised if areas in the city with top-rated public schools drop so much in price that owning costs the same as renting.
carrollgardened – i agree about the verandah place. in 1996 i did indeed pass up similar on that block that needed full reno for $500K and thought that it was too small, no yard.. etc… clearly some liked it then and some like it now. fyi, bought a small completely renovated 4 story that i thought was way better for the money.
on the whole tho, feel that CH is a great hood for convenience to city, restaurants, schools, beauty, and love the mix of brick houses vs. all brownstones, and can understand dropping bucks there.
vanessa: I agree that that block is not the nicest in Carroll Gardens, but it has it’s charms. We live right around the corner, and it’s quiet, close to the subway and the rest of CG is still quite convenient. This block in particular also has a lot of families & seems well taken care of.
17 1st Street (next block over, btw Hoyt & Bond) closed a few months for well over 1 mil also. Granted, that house is a bit bigger, but I’m not astounded at these prices.
http://bstoner.wpengine.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/03/house_of_the_da_651.php