Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Still not much to celebrate. Open House Picks 3/13/09 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Comment: Still not much to celebrate.
Open House Picks 3/13/09 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Mr Lefever: I disagree on the coop situation. Prices are 20-30% below peak (07-08). Brokers were soliciting owners — saying they had buyers lined up for real 2-3 bedroom units at a million+ in the heights. Now there are TONS of them – and at $800K or less.
And one bedrooms were hitting $1000 sq ft. — now donw to $600. Prices are where they were in 2006.
Sebb – if I knew exactly, I would be a rich woman. My bets are that there will be continued weakness in the NYC RE market for at least one more year, and likely longer. I predict continuing weakness, then plateau, then a slow climb back, but no where near the record increases we saw in the decade of the boom – that was very likely a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. If I had to make a specific wager, it would be this (for prime areas, which is where we are looking albeit we are open to “fringes of prime” with decent schools):
Current: 25% off peak
Next 6 months: 30-35% off peak
Next year this time: 35-40% off peak
I think 50% off peak is very aggressive prediction but not impossible, but I am confident that 35% is a very conservative bottom and suspect it could be closer to 40% (again, this is not a wild prediction, but on the conservative side).
bklplebe, most brownstones remain as single, 2 or 3 family, and that’s the way people want them. Very few have been condo-ed or coop-ed. Family size has gotten smaller since the 1880s when these were built. I don’t understand your point.
Miss Muffett : When do you think we will hit bottom ? What % more do we have to go?
Actually, as an owner of a coop who might want to buy something bigger in the future, lower prices are to my advantage. Not while they are falling — too much uncertainty — but once they settle out. I’ll be selling for less, but I will be saving even more on a larger place.
“However, inventory for brownstones is very, very low.”
Right but brownstones were meant for families but due to public schools and high prices they can be sold only if they are cut to small apts with weird layouts, no services, no elevators, no outdoor space, strange coop situations, etc In my opinion coops and condos are preferable in this case.
Mr. B is not just an owner, he maintains a blog about real estate, and this post is specifically about the market. When you buy, you most probably won’t look at the market as obsessively. You seem smart enough to understand this: he writes about real estate from his own perspective ( hey just like you do! Far out).
Also don’t look at listing prices as indicators of anything. It is meaningless, as various real estate brokers have different policies. What matters is the sales price.
The good news is that houses are selling in Brooklyn Heights, the bad news is that they are selling quite a bit lower than they were pre-lehman. I would say 20 to 25% off peak. That’s serious. No one is talking about it though. The co-op market seems to holding up much better, at least in BH. I have said it before and it is worth repeating: the Heights is the bellweather for the rest of the Boro.
Ringo – I did not see Hicks house, but I did see many, many other houses at peak that sold for shocking amounts that did not seem justified. That’s exactly what was so crazy about the peak – the fact that homes that had plenty of defects nonetheless sold for astronomical prices. It was totally crazy!! So sure, one can say now, in retrospect that 3.5 seems like a crazy price, but back in the day, daring to express that kind of sentiment resulted in being at the receiving end of a slew of “bitter-renter” type insults. Alas, there are still quite a few sellers out there clinging to pre-bust asks.