Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Nice price movement on 2nd Place! Open House Picks 11/7/08 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Comment: Nice price movement on 2nd Place!
Open House Picks 11/7/08 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
“Then why buy at all?”
Goddamn AMT.
My emerging markets mutual funds are doing very, very well. So I agree that emerging markets particularly far east markets are leading right now.
The other thing to consider is that money markets and cd’s are paying back zip. You’re better off putting the money in a vault in your basement. So people want to speculate a bit.
Unfortunately real estate here at home is still shaky. There is still demand for the top of the market, and the bottom, but no one knows what the middle product is worth. that is a bad sign, it means that it is not worth as much as the sellers think.
We’re not out of the bear market yet in terms of real estate. in terms of stock, well, you never know when the next tsunami will swamp all the merkets or lift them to new highs. In the meantime don’t give up your day job.
I think we would all be relieved to think that the worst has passed in terms of what seems an endless downward spiral up until very recently. But, while I am hopeful that the coordinated policies to shore up the economy are halting further declines, I also think the recovery will be long and slow – not just in real estate but in many asset classes. The bubble was just too big and lasted too long.
I also think NY RE will continue to fall much more before it reaches a bottom. And DIBS, as I’ve stated repeatedly, I’m not trying to call the bottom. If we see the house we love at a reasonable price we can afford, we will buy – that is, we won’t turn up our noses thinking it must have much further to fall. The problem, however, is that most sellers/brokers are far from being willing to accept a “reasonable” price right now – indeed, it’s all the disagreement over what is “reasonable” that is freezing the NY market now. In a buyers market, only when sellers relent will the thaw begin.
> “I am in all likelihood going to sell within 5 years of buying.”
Then why buy at all?
I have been saying for a while that I am more comfortable holding US equities right now than NYC real estate. I remain of that view for the time being.
I was buying all the way down to 6500/650 🙂
I’m not taking money off the table. I expect plenty of big temporary drops as the market regains its footing.
I could summarize my views as follows:
– I can go long S&P 500 right now and maybe lose 30%. I’m happy to take that risk.
– I can go long real estate by plunking down a 20% down payment and be completely wiped out – 100% loss – by this time next year.
An important factor is I am in all likelihood going to sell within 5 years of buying.
When I no longer have a confidence that prices are continuing to go down I will buy.
Again, I think, other than a few outliers, the only differences of opinion on this site relate to the amount of price declines left in this cycle.
Right, lechacal. The financing that the major banks are getting done now along with the huge issuances by the likes of Dow Chemical and many others are definitely a sign the capital markets have firmed.
The economic numbers although they are just getting “less bad” are driving investor sentiment back into the market. Treasuries will continue to be sold for more risky investments. The Emerging markets have led the global market recovery.
Absolutely correct, Real Estate will be a longer, slower process.
Although the DOW has resistance at 9,000, the broaser SP500 has gone through its 900 resistance. I’m very nervous as to when to start taking money off the table here. It borders on greed right now and that’s not a good thing. But, so many people have missed this move in the stock market.
Yes, Miss Muffett, I only meant it as you described in your third paragraph. Of course to those who have to sell and to those trying to buy it is of the utmost importance. However, I also believe that trying to guess a top or bottom, IN THE LONG RUN, will cause you more regret than its worth.
From my perch I am seeing concrete signs of economic recovery. There are basic corporate transactions that no one was considering in Jan-Feb-Mar because everyone was holding their breath waiting for the next Lehman. I think the developing view is that things are pretty bad but there isn’t another cliff to fall off so might as well get back to business (albeit at a lower level than when this all started).
To be clear I do not think this will change the direction of NYC real estate prices.
Corner,
You are a very selective reader of this site if you think I don’t follow the discussions. I am well aware of your comments and DIBS’s. My opinion is just different than yours.