Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: 0-for-4 on the first batch of post-Lehman Open House Picks! Open House Picks 9/19/08 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Comment: 0-for-4 on the first batch of post-Lehman Open House Picks!
Open House Picks 9/19/08 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Dave, it is meaningful to see a sampling of houses that were on the market 6 months ago and see how many have actually sold. That is indicative (albeit with a small sampling) of transaction volume vs. supply – in particular, aged supply. Looking at actual sales in isolation is almost completely meaningless for this purpose.
Certainly no hard feelings about you calling me an asshole (and likewise no apologies about anything I said).
It’s pretty silly to look at 4 houses from 6 months ago *or* 4 houses sold last week, and claim it as evidence for the team bear/bull argument … the sky is falling, or everything is fine.
Last week’s biggest sales are, by definition, outliers. Open House Picks: Six Months Later are a bit more interesting in terms of seeing a trend because they’re almost a random sample – not really random, but whatever it was that piqued Mr. B’s interest, and there is a bit of range in asking price.
1842 – I also question the value of using this site alone as a barometer of the market. But I think anyone who follows the market closely, and reads the news, can see that there is indeed ample evidence – beyond the relatively small Brownstoner universe – that the NYC RE market has already started to head down and is poised to head down substantially further.
Dave,
Thank you very much.
The young attendants at the hotel would have certainly met with your approval.
1842,
I have no horse in this race. I call ’em as I see ’em.
Right now a lot of people are afraid they will be next in line to be laid off. So they are being super-cautious. Prices have not dropped enough to tempt the bottom-feeders, so things are in stasis. Sellers will need re-adjust and then re-adjust again to the market realities if they want to make a sale.
I don’t get into the whole bear/bull team debate. I like to read the news and watch the market, but generally keep quiet on this blog about these points because everyone seems to have an agenda driven by their personal situation – which is fine and understandable. All I’m saying is it is hard to take a few anecdotes from people, or sales on this site, to establish a trend. Many people here seem smart and can provide cogent, reasoned arguments for their forecasts on the housing market – so in that sense, it is useful to see where people are psychologically (at least the handful of people who regularly post here).
sam…..yes, ithought you mentioned you’d be away for awhile. Hope it was a nice trip. Sounds like it was. You were definitely missed last night.
Yes, lechacal, prices are coming down but your earlier post makes it sound like 4 houses that have not sold is an issue. I merely pointed out that we will see 4 houses that have sold.
As for calling you an asshole, you don’t start something up confrontationally like that and expect to be dealt with politely..
probably lechacal, just sayin’ – I’m not sure how we determine what the “shadow inventory” is though, and any inventory build up will vary depending on the type of property etc. We’ll see of course. I’m curious how the trillion dollar asset buy by the gov’t to stimulating mortgage lending, and increasing news that jumbo lending by BoA and others will pick up, will affect prices, especially if inflation starts to pick up in the next year or two…
Dave,
I got back last night from a little vacation in Tunisia.
Tunis is really cool, the ancient sites are fascinating, the food is French/Middle Eastern. Great place. I recommend it.