Open House Picks
Park Slope 356 First Street Orrichio-Anderson Sunday 12-3 $1,750,000 GMAP P*Shark Fort Greene 134 South Oxford Street Maggie Hopp Sunday 1-3:30 $1,450,000 GMAP P*Shark Boerum Hill 442 State Street Halstead Sunday 1-2:30 $1,200,000 GMAP P*Shark Red Hook 52 Dikeman Street Corcoran Sunday 2:45-3:30 $975,000 GMAP P*Shark
Park Slope
356 First Street
Orrichio-Anderson
Sunday 12-3
$1,750,000
GMAP P*Shark
Fort Greene
134 South Oxford Street
Maggie Hopp
Sunday 1-3:30
$1,450,000
GMAP P*Shark
Boerum Hill
442 State Street
Halstead
Sunday 1-2:30
$1,200,000
GMAP P*Shark
Red Hook
52 Dikeman Street
Corcoran
Sunday 2:45-3:30
$975,000
GMAP P*Shark
Sorry, I have to add one more thing to respond to “I Disagree”. Why is it “delusional” to suggest the owner of PS house paid a fraction of the asking price when the ad for this house says it’s been in the same family for 50 years? I am not saying *every* owner in PS paid a fraction, but plenty did. Most buyers who bought before 2004 probably paid about 50% or less than what the current prices are – I know **plenty** of people in this boat, who paid 700, 800, 900K, maybe a million tops for PS houses within the last 10 years that up until recently were asking 2-2.5million. So please, do not call me delusional. I’m sorry my calling the market like it is annoys you, but I’m equally annoyed by those who somehow think today’s prices are justified, or should only see a modest dip.
The Chicken – re: your logic of who can afford a $2mil house right now – the people in category c you mention, who have to sell a property at a similarly inflated house, are probably NOT good candidates to buy a $2mil house. Chances are they will be selling an apartment and the apt market has already started to suffer more than the townhouse market, so they may find they either can’t sell (this is happening to people I know) or have to significantly reduce their price. Re: the “a” category – people with ready cash – well, there are some out there, who either sold at what is now unquestionably the peak (which is behind us), or saved a lot (I’m in this category, not c as you placed me). These, the a’s (not the c’s), are the people who will probably be buying at first since there is, for sure, pent-up demand due to lack of inventory. But it’s really this group who are going to dwindle quickly, and even those who remain (like me) will start to become much more conservative with their budgets since, whereas, at the peak, they have been inclined to “stretch” to buy the right place, I think “stretching” seems imprudent to say the least right now, since who knows whose income will take a hit in this climate (not to mention our vastly shrunken retirement/college savings). Suddenly, paying 1.5 mil for an 18′ 3-story townhouse in Park Slope that needs work does not seem like the deal of a century, and in fact, seems expensive – I think that deal will be coming soon, but the current prices have not yet adjusted.
11217 and I disagree – my, what vitriol! Look, I’m not the only person repeating myself since we are all coming at this topic with a distinct point of view – for example 11217 I’ve also seem remarkable consistency in your posts. If I repeat myself, it’s to counter the repetition by other posters that the prices that remain **insane** are somehow reasonable even though most prices still do not reflect a correction. And I’m NOT saying that the ONLY people who will be hurt are those who speculated or overreached – this is twisting my words. What I DO say is that yes, there will be some people who bought in the last 5 years thinking they could afford something and suddenly finding they cannot due to unforseen circumstances (job loss, divorce, etc.). People in his category who will be forced to sell might indeed feel very real pain. But let’s look at the numbers. A bigger house directly across the street from the PS house featured here sold in Dec 04, less than 4 years ago, for 1.2. So, let’s say that person had to sell now. Chances are they would still make a tidy profit, and even 6 months-1 year from now, they would probably at the worst break even. So, that probably leaves mostly people who bought within the last 3 years who are really vulnerable. I DO feel compassion for these people. But really, what percentage of current sellers are in this boat? Of course, it’s impossible to know, but I suspect there are many sellers who are NOT in this boat. Also, I realize that the broader economic conditions leading to the housing downturn in NYC will cause broader pain for many NYers (and I’m as nervous as anyone else that I’ll be among them since job security is much more fragile for just about everyone). So I’m not denying that either. I just find there remains a level of denial among market bulls about NYC real estate. Sure, there’s a concession that prices will dip in some way, but I do remain incredulous when a HOTD (like the one yesterday) seems “well-priced” at 2.5 when it sold also just a few years ago for about half that. As long as others repeat their justifications about the currently still sky-high prices, I will continue to repeat why I think these prices are no longer justified.
The market will crash. The question is when.
Only folks with lots of savings and iron balls will be able to seize the moment.
11217, you certainly are not alone. more annoying than the constant repetition of her story is her bizarre insistence that the only people who will be hurt by the downturn in RE prices are people who speculated or overreached, and everyone else should be just fine (and if they’re smart they should just start pricing where she wants them to right now!). somehow, in her world, there are enough people in brooklyn who overreached and are under water such that prices already should be much lower than they are, but, miraculously, the owners of each specific house she comments on “probably paid a tiny fraction” of what she thinks the price should be…annoying AND delusional.
The message may be the same but it’s not wrong.
The only way to afford a $2m house right now is either a) have that in ready cash, b) have a $500k down payment and be pulling in $500k (that’s basic only as bonuses aren’t being included now), or c) selling an existing place at a similarly inflated price.
If you are a, you are already likely living in your own place and don’t need another one.
There’s hardly any b’s around anymore (and the few there are also probably have their own place already). Pretty much every company that I have spoken to recently, or has reported numbers so far, said that business hit a brick wall mid/end-September – and it was not great even before then.
Which leaves c (of which Miss Muffett is one of) – and these are realistically the only ones out there buying at the moment. But as sales slow down, these get fewer and further apart. They may choose to rent (as MM as done), or leave the city, or bargain down the price – so the c’s get even fewer.
Eventually you get back to rational pricing based upon incomes. Until then, the key indicator to watch is volume of transactions.
Could you be any more of a broken record, Ms. Muffet? I mean, really.
Besides Sebb and PropJoe (both psychologically disturbed if you ask me) NO ONE here thinks prices aren’t headed south. And probably by quite a bit.
Will you please give it a rest with your same story every single freakin day. WE KNOW…you made a killing, got out in time, you are SO smart, everyone else is asking too much, blah blah blah.
Do you have anything else to say on the topics here?
I can’t believe I’m the only one sick of hearing your story day in and day out.
I already had one tenant who was an I-Banker at Citi get laid off.
Luckily he found another job and the rent keeps rolling in.
The Wall Street Journal today regarding Citibank layoffs :
“23,000 job cuts over the last four quarters, and a goal of more than 60,000 more by next year.”
So I misread, who cares?