NYC Recession Turning Out Better Than Expected
“The gathering consensus is that the recession is nearly over in the city and, largely because of the enormous amount of federal aid poured into the big banks, the toll on New York will be much less severe than most had feared. Not only will the job losses in the city fall far short of…
“The gathering consensus is that the recession is nearly over in the city and, largely because of the enormous amount of federal aid poured into the big banks, the toll on New York will be much less severe than most had feared. Not only will the job losses in the city fall far short of the recession that wracked the metropolitan area in the early 1990s, economists and analysts say they will also not measure up to the losses in the shorter, shallower recession that surrounded the 9/11 attacks.”
— NY Times
Much of the money has already been repaid, with interest, stevie.
The headline of Mr. B’s is a (wishfully?) optimistic spin on the NYT article headlined “Wall Street Bailout Softens the Blow of a Recession”. The point of the article is *not* that everything is rosy, and unemployment is about to go away and your home values will go back to bubble peak values. It’s just saying that people are expecting the economy to stop contracting soon, and we avoided the feared worst case scenario of a depression. The recession can end soon and we can still have 10+% employment and basically flat RE prices for a long time.
You doomsayers are really missing the point here, and are just using this thread as an excuse to post a bunch of derivative, rhetorical drivel on your broader bearish view. You may be proven right, you may not, but present a reasoned argument, don’t just spew rhetoric.
Nothing, and I mean nothing, in financial markets or economics is guaranteed. The fact that, contrary to this rule, many (not all) of you seem so convinced in your viewpoint really undermines your case. That’s why someone suggested your conviction was a contrarian indicator.
Look, I’m moderately bullish, but I also understand there are downside risks, and am thus willing to be nimble enough to go short if it seems the data flow is getting more bearish. But, as dibs or someone pointed out above, the data isn’t bearish, the market price action isn’t bearish, and your blind conviction in your bear view without willing to see that things are changing caused you to miss the once-in-a-lifetime 70%+ upswing in many markets over the past year. Bitter much?
Anyhow, back to the point, this post re: gathering consensus that the recession here in the City will be less severe than expected is _good_ news for NYC and NYC real estate. Does it mean things will definitely go up, no (remember kids, nothing is guaranteed in finance and economics). But embrace it as what it is and don’t just launch into your same old tired diatribe.
Also, not to take anything away from those in publishing, music, etc. as they’re definitely invaluable industries for society, you have to realize a) but those industries have been in broad secular decline for years and b) make up a very small part of the city economy. For better or worse, finance drives the NYC economy these days (and has a big impact on real estate, the topic of this blog…). The poor situation in those other industries is, largely, irrelevant for the NYC R.E. market.
Lastly, to those idiots who trot out silly statements blaming Bernanke and others for not foreseeing this sooner, yes, you have a very simple and obvious point that they were not omniscient (did you expect they were??). But realize, Bernanke managed the crisis as well as could be expected (cutting rates early, while Europe was still raising them; resorting to unconventional measures). He was a student of the Great Depression, and you should all be thankful he prevented a repeat Depression. Now those of you who note low rates, inflated money supply, etc. could well be the seeds of myriad future problems have a point, but only time will tell how he manages the exit (and there is no real reson to believe he won’t manage it well).
http://www.doonesbury.com/strip/dailydose/index.html?uc_full_date=20100228
NYC finance jobs and real estate have been saved with money stolen from the american people. Enjoy the stability of the NYC real estate market all you want but it was only possible with ill gotten gains.
Kens -the clothing industry is NOT hiring
so many designers are scaling back with their staffs/factory orders and creativity.
My perception(not complete reality of course) is that finance and banks have begun to hire instead of lay-off
ps – what industry do you work in?
joe, I’ve built up my front parapet so that I can shoot and pour tar from there .
———–
make sure you have tar boiling capabilities nearby.
To be or not to be – that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And, by opposing, end them.
———–
saw ‘as you like it’ at bam last night. EXCELLENT!!
well okaaaaay (stroking chin gently with slightly quizzical expression set on stony face)
“That’s why I backed away from this view although I think wasder still holds to it.”
Nah–I am with you slope. One, I don’t care anymore if they are the same person but two, I actually don’t think they are. My real issues with both of them came when I was in the agonizing process of trying to decide whether to buy into the shitstorm that was (is?) the real estate market in fall 08 and those two were needling my ass in a way that I found offensive. Now that the deed has been done, for better or worse, the thin-skinned wasder has given way to a more serene and philosophic model.
no, i do agree with you about innovation. but as someone else mentioned the finance industry seems to only go about shady innovation (must like prostitutes these days lol)
*rob*