NYC Real Estate Market 'Most Challenged'
“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the…
“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the most substantive rate of decline [ahead], it’s New York City. It has the greatest number of job losses among the higher earners.” — Ivy Zelman, a former Credit Suisse analyst, in Barron’s via Curbed.
The reality is the “Last Week’s Biggest Sales” thread here every week. There aren’t that many brownstones that trade on a weekly basis. There never were, not even at the top, compared to condos here or in Manhattan.
The market is back to reality with sellers asking prices, for the most part, where an accepted offer is going to be 10% or so less than ask…a normal market.
snark—I think its as much about space as price, at least for family type buyers.
snark….right?
hey what, aren’t those year-on-year changes? Your #s show a two year drop of 1 – (1 – 4.50%)(1 – 8.69%) = 12.8%, from Nov 06 to Nov 08.
that’s a classic mis-rep that the TV news keeps throwing out there. They report virtually the same annual change every month, because the headline is more eye-catching.
Manhattan is dominated by condos. I’m talking brownstone prices which at all times over the past 5-10 years have remained well below anything of comparable size (including condos) in Manhattan. My argument is primarily that brownstones will not fall like anything in Manhattan because they represent such a huge value in terms of space.
I also rant about the ability of tens of thousands of Manhattan condo owners who, if even a small portion might want to opt for the Brooklyn brownstone lifestyle and still have huge gains locked into 1 , 3 and 3 BR condos and they can sell them and buy a Brooklyn brownstone oftentimes for cash and with money to spare!!!!
OK, lechacal, but given that the primary draw to Brooklyn (for a large number of people) has been relative affordability, do you not suspect many people will go back to Manhattan as prices drop there? Will that not put more downward pressure on Brooklyn prices?
I think I get what you are saying Lechacal. Certainly from the perspective of people putting down long term roots with kids and such Brooklyn has experienced a renaissance in the last few years. Unless all of these people pull up roots and sell this year, they are all going to be riding out the storm. Hopefully is the operative word in any discussion about this phenomenon however.
“If there was a state of “disequilibrium”, it was that people were living further away from the city than they wanted to be. wouldn’t that support manhattan prices better?”
“Serious question here… If you think Manhattan will drop 50%, why do you think Brooklyn will fare better? That seems, shall we say, counterintuitive.’
Wow the Assheads are waking up!!! That coma was a bitch huh??
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
The reason for Brooklyn prices holding up better than Manhattan prices is a one-time shift in popularity. Brooklyn is hot. It wasn’t so long ago that it wasn’t socially acceptable to live on this side of the river. Now I have friends who come here from Manhattan on Saturday nights. I’m not saying Brooklyn is hotter than Manhattan or has the faintest hope of ever being so, just that the collective force of this one-time shift in popularity will benefit the Brooklyn market relative to the Manhattan market.
“Soon the NYC market is going to wake up and realize this city is becoming less and less attractive by the minute. Many of the wonderful “perks” everyone lists when asked to justify this city are QUICKLY becoming available in MANY MANY other places.”
OK, using that same rationale, why would YOU want to buy an apartment here?