News Flash: Everyone Wants to Live in the City
If you weren’t already convinced that city life is becoming increasingly preferable to suburban life, see this article in The New Republic, which looks at a trend called “demographic inversion”—a reversal of the white flight that helped hollow out the inner city beginning in the 1950s. The author quantifies what many Brooklynites already know: the…
If you weren’t already convinced that city life is becoming increasingly preferable to suburban life, see this article in The New Republic, which looks at a trend called “demographic inversion”—a reversal of the white flight that helped hollow out the inner city beginning in the 1950s. The author quantifies what many Brooklynites already know: the neighborhoods closest to vocational and cultural hubs (like, dare we say, Manhattan) and with shopping and services in walking distance are the most popular, forcing poorer folks to move further and further out. There’s been plenty of talk about the suburbs potentially turning into 21st century slums but what will 21st century cities look like if demographic inversion continues? “In the worst case, demographic inversion would result in the poor living out of sight and largely forgotten in some new kind of high-rise projects beyond the city border, with the wealthy huddled in gated enclaves in the center.”
Trading Places [The New Republic]
Beyond Gentrification [Curbed]
Photo by Daily Phototherapy.
BTW, that McMansion in the picture doesn’t look bad. It beats the Fedders cookie cutter.
Polemicist,
You keep on arguing that no developer in their right mind will build rental housing because of some increase in rent regulation that you think is on the horizon. How do you explain the huge investment in rental housing that’s happened over the past couple of year: Avalon’s two project on the LES, one near Columbia and the one on Myrtle, EQR and Dermot in CLinton Green, EQR in downtown brooklyn (on Lawrence Street), EQR also just bought a portfolio on the UWS, Rose properties in downtown Brooklyn and on 6th Ave in Chelsea, Related in Hell’s Kitchen, Two trees at atlantic and court (2 projects) and their Water Street proposal is for rentals, and many many more. All of these are projects that have started in the last year or two. All of these guys are huge real estate interests who seem to be betting that rental housing will remain a viable business plan for the long run. Are they just all idiots and you’re smarter than them? Because the market doesn’t seem to be backing you up on this at all.
“‘m still NOT already convinced. When oil crashes and gas prices come back to reality, then what? You think the very reason why suburban residents flee the city, overpopulation, will not get worse if they reverse course and come back?”
Ding Ding Ding!!!!!!! Re Read this paragraph!
“ey don’t qualify for subsidies, can’t afford the new condos and find NY’s taxes and high prices to be suffocating. These folks do need a car, and want a place where they can park it. These folks are leaving, and that is not a good prospect.”
Well written Benson!
If you believe the hype then buy something! Make the bet with your future that Asshat Hill is Park Slope 30 years ago. Please do it, Posers!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end,,,
“This already has happened in many cities like Paris, Buenos Aires, Tokyo, Dubai and London.”
I will admit that I saw this in Stockholm, Sweden, but if it does happen here in NYC, it will be decades from now. In the mean time, the market will still get murdered. There will be no free lunch for this unprecedented RE pyramid scheme in the U.S. and in Brooklyn. But let’s talk, talk, talk, talk it up!
To all you homeshoppers out there: Caveat Emptor!
Polemecist and all;
I agree that rent control is poisonous, but I don’t believe it will have any effect on the upper middle class that is flocking to the “brownstone belt” of Brooklyn. Rather, it will have the effect of further pushing the lower middle class out of the city, as such:
-the rich and upper class of Brownstoner country want condos and the amenities that this article speaks of: walkable neighborhoods, a short commute to the city center, etc. There is alot of land in the Brownstoner areas that can be developed, from the days when these areas were less desirable. For example: few people are being displaced by the construction on 4th Ave. Rather, some guy who formerly owned a small garage strike it rich when a developer comes knocking on their door. This trend will continue.
-the poor and immigrant communities also find NY atractive for other reasons: alot of entry-level service jobs, relatively cheap public tranportation, and a whole slew of social services and subsidies (like rent control) that benefit them. Hence, this demographic is growing, and moving to areas that used to be occupied by the middle class and working class – areas like Canarsie, Bensonhurst, East Flatbush, etc.
-the one demographic that is declining in NY is the working and lower middle class, the people who used to occupy the areas cited. NYC is no longer attractive to these folks, who are in a very different situation than those in Brownstoner country. They don’t qualify for subsidies, can’t afford the new condos and find NY’s taxes and high prices to be suffocating. These folks do need a car, and want a place where they can park it. These folks are leaving, and that is not a good prospect. A city composed mainly of the uber-wealthy and immigrants will have a poor civic life, few cultural or social norms, and will end up not far fom a type of Disney experience. This is where NY’s politicians are taking us. In their rhetoric and actions, they seek money from the uber-wealthy, and the votes of the poor, giving out goodies like rent-control.
Talk, talk, talk, talk it (Brownstone Brooklyn TM market) up!
“If you weren’t already convinced that city life is becoming increasingly preferable to suburban life, see this article…”
I’m still NOT already convinced. When oil crashes and gas prices come back to reality, then what? You think the very reason why suburban residents flee the city, overpopulation, will not get worse if they reverse course and come back?
Chew on this…
Can Crashes be Forecasted?
The most deadly phrase in the market is “this time is differentâ€! Another costly adage is “we are in a New Economyâ€! Both these phrases and their variations have been around since the dawn of markets. The markets never change, because human psychology never changes. When phrases like these are used, it’s because the user is in denial of reality.
Read more: http://stock-market-crash.net/forecast-crash.htm
like london and paris almost already are…
If you believe this crap then make the bet. Buy something in these neighborhoods! Just don’t rent and wait to see what happens, buy a condo or a house.
The Hood is nice with 5.7% unemployment but it’s not so good with 12% unemployment.
And one last thing. I thought the eagle had landed thing was Starbucks in Bed Stuy. Guess what? That didn’t happen……
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
100+ posts
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/08/nyregion/08rent.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2&ref=nyregion&oref=slogin
Nothing will kill this trend in NYC more than the expansion of rent stabilization. If rent ceilings are expanded for now the third time, you can pretty much kiss the development of rental apartments goodbye.
That would pretty much end this demographic trend in NYC.