Market Predictions for 2006: Neighborhood Picks
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet…
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet against Williamsburg. Overall, though, we don’t think 2006 will look at all like 2005, which was marked by huge surges in prices in some rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods. From where we sit, 2006 is looking like a year for the market to take a breath and digest all the rapid-fire changes that have occurred in recent years. Barring a big move upward in rates, we think prices will more-or-less move sideways. In our own little corner of Brooklyn, the big test will be whether the upscaling of Fulton Street can extend beyond Fort Greene. Man, could we use a gourmet market in Clinton Hill! Anyway, that’s how we see it. But what do we know. We’d rather hear from you.
Happy New Year.
Brownstoner
disgusted, we’re so over your rants and raves. just leave us alone to have our fun.I don’t think I’m an expert, but i love being an armchair observer. why do you care SO much. I bet you live with your mom, alone. and you’re in your late 40s. ew.
Ok Bubble-Heads, FYI a quick check on On Line Residential, a site for brokers who co-broke, shows that this week alone 18 houses in Brooklyn went into contract or O&A. They range from $3,995 mil. in B/hights to $504,000 in Bed-Stuy.Out of 111 houses on the site that is fairly impressive for 1 week. Can any one say Bonus time. The numbers do not include the sale of my house in PS, above ask thank you very much,or the house I am buying in Bay Ridge,also this week. The reasion for my move is a “cash out” to a bigger house and I won’t have to rent out a part of my house to help cover the mortgage.And I have found 3 other buyers in the last year alone on my new street have done the same thing, all from PS, or Borhem Hill.Yes I will miss PS but the Ridge feels more diverse and “working Class”,but for how long? So if it’s deal you are looking for go long on the “ridge”, bigger houses at 1/2 the price of the northern nabes. P.S. I am a RE Agent in Manhattan and an Appraiser too. Have a great New Year everyone.
-anon 11:05
what 2000 market crash? NYC boomed from ’99 to date.
-mr. happily in cash 9:29…nice job on the comment, your eternal damnation is confirmed and guaranteed your everlasting burn, fyi;you’re bunking with Bin-Laden.
-brownstoner, do you have any idea what you’re talking about?
NOT
Just go back to 1991 and look at what happened to NYC real estate. And the market wasn’t nearly as bubblicious along with Americans using their homes as ATMs and really over-extending themselves.
NYC is not immune. To think so is just whistling past the graveyard or that W. is ONLY spying on calls to al-Qaida.
My greed and blindness were cured after the market crash in 2000. Try to be objective about the facts and I elected to err on the side of caution, because I don’t expect wages to increase along with price of housing…globalization is taking care of that. Why pay you $100,000 to do something that a kid in India will do for $18 or $20K? China is helping to keep consumer product prices down, but housing just keeps rising…something is wrong when the cost of renting is so substantially less than buying.
Happy Holidays
ps: Tamiflu will not solve your birdflu, but it will make Donald Rumsfeld richer.
Happily,
I can see a potential 30% shaving happening in some of the zestiest markets — Viva Las Vegas, Florida sectors, Arizona, etc. — but do you really think that’s possible here in NYC? I think maybe 10%, 15% tops, is possible, but that’s worst-case scenario.
Well it sure sounds like there are plenty of fools left in Brooklyn. That should work out great for sellers (that can actually convince someone to commit). Remember that renting is still far less expensive than buying when all of the costs are added in. Along with the average cost of a home or condo, you are going to have an ever shrinking pool of buyers who can neither afford these ridiculous prices or will find renting to simply be a better deal in the short term. Eventually prices will revert to the mean and a lot of over-extended morons with interest-only or option ARM loans will end up folding because the rents in their brilliant investment wont cover the mortgage payment.
Just like Jesus, Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy, and the Easter Bunny, the reality of these insane prices will come crashing down like the child who saw mom & dad putting presents under the tree or the realization that people can’t come back from the dead or walk on water. Reality will return soon enough.
Just do the math on a $1.5 million dollar building and you’ll see that renting is a lot less expensive. And if prices do go down (and they will) you will have no one to blame but yourselves…the evidence is all around you. Just be patient, these things take time. But consider, that if it went up fast (and it has), it can also come down fast too. A 30% haircut will only bring prices back to 2000-2001 levels.
Don’t believe me, just go to an open house (many happening at Xmas time no less…very, very unusual) and see how much action there is. Want to take guess on activity level? I’ll give you a hint…it’s dead. D.E.A.D. Lots of people want to sell, but nobody is coming by to even look (except curious neighbors who wonder if they should sell too). If you have any friends in real estate you can trust, just ask them.
I sleep well at night having cashed out…do you? And can you handle the coming haircut?
what about Bay Ridge??
Does anyone out there subscribe to that whole “Contrarian” theory? According to that theory, if I am correct, the neighborhoods that *everyone* says *can’t go down* in value are presicely the neighborhoods that will go down in value the most if there is a correction. The neighborhoods that everyone says *the knife will fall* on will actually fair the downturn the best.
According to the theory, the previous posts portend that established neighborhoods such as Brooklyn Heights and DUMBO will go down the most if there is a downturn, while *borderline* neighborhoods such as Crown Heights, PLG, and Bed/Stuy will fair the best
Can one of you Wall Street guys please correct me if I understand this theory incorrectly?
Thx
tremx – long