Market Predictions for 2006: Neighborhood Picks
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet…
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet against Williamsburg. Overall, though, we don’t think 2006 will look at all like 2005, which was marked by huge surges in prices in some rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods. From where we sit, 2006 is looking like a year for the market to take a breath and digest all the rapid-fire changes that have occurred in recent years. Barring a big move upward in rates, we think prices will more-or-less move sideways. In our own little corner of Brooklyn, the big test will be whether the upscaling of Fulton Street can extend beyond Fort Greene. Man, could we use a gourmet market in Clinton Hill! Anyway, that’s how we see it. But what do we know. We’d rather hear from you.
Happy New Year.
Brownstoner
JoshK, you make a good point about long-term rates heading higher. But by your estimatation, that would push mortgage rates to 7, which is still a pretty good rate for most buyers. and at the uppper end of the brownstone market, where people are laying out millions (in cash!) to buy homes, what does it even matter?
How is an unrealized loss the same as a realized loss?
If you had bought in 1990 and sold in 1995, you realized a loss.
If you had held on and sold in 2005 you would have turned an unrealized loss into a realized gain.
If your friends are not getting offers than how are you presupposing they are 20-50% ‘in the money’? An real appraisor does not look at a couple of sales and claim that is the new market price…its the ‘trend’ that is important.
And no evidence YET that price trends are down…a few anecdotal stories on price cuts on properties that were ‘pushing the envelope’ doesn’t cut it.
People that are looking for significant price deflation cite downturn of 89-95. Those prices did not occur by itself – other economic factors went along with that (both on national and local levels).
Without other co-factors I would not predict real downturn in prices but definitely some of the more outrageous pricing will decline.
If co-factors occur on the economic front there will be signigicant price reduction.
Gowanus – is hardly a neigborhood separate ‘hood – just the less desirable/central/residential blocks of Park Slope and Carroll Gardens and prices will go up (or down) with those neighborhoods.
Red Hook has so little owner occupied housing hardly worth mentioning except that future will bring in lux condos -which is very differect category than current residences.
Crown Hts/BedStuy should continue to attract buyers willing to renovate old house with potential/detail as fewer remain to be redone in Clinton Hill/Prospect Hts.
I would think that condo appreciation is over/some decline in per sq ft prices. Townhouses will maintain/solidify recent prices appreciation.
Sunset Park is bracing for future development that is tied into the new down-zoning of the SSlope and the up-zoning of 4th Ave. Sunset Park will certainly be the recipient of the affordable housing bonus given to the 4th Ave corridor. S.P. is already started it’s own down-zoning proposal in fear of what it sees as the next hunting ground for 5+ story new condos, but that is at least 2 years off before it gets passed. Prospect Height specifically St. Marks Avenue between Underhill and Washington will be the site of much development in the next year (3 bedroom luxe condos). They already have two new townhouses on the block made up of mostly single story garages. Prices will always be high for single family homes as that attracts the least creative real estate speculator as NYC is concerned. I would look for streets with lots of crappy one and two story commercial garages/auto shops/ parking lots (like 15th Street between 7th and 8th Avenues in SSlope was two years ago) that boarder on any hot neighborhood. Don’t forget to plant your tulip bulbs before the ground freezes solid so that in the Spring you will be rewarded with splendid color.
Wow — this is quite an informed group of people! These posters must be quite wealthy considering all the wise investments they must have made!
I think JoshK has earned the “Master of the Obvious” designation of the week for this post.
“It’s one interconnected market. If boring new condos were $1/sq feet, many people who would want brownstones would pass them up – even though they may really like Brownstones better. The question is “at what price?”.”
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 03:18 PM
Realistic view of Sunset Park/Greenwood Strip
The rowhouses in Sunset/Greenwood are almost always significantly smaller than BH, PS, CG, CH, FG.
The BQE expressway area, GW Cemetary area will always limit the values in Sunset Park.
There is a disproportian number of tenants over owners in Sunset Park. Will the gentry be welcome?
Have the drug dealing gangs left Sunset Park?
whoops. i meant a 25-year investment. i can’t imagine what the yield on a 254-year note would look like.
Attached dwellings can be built again on vacant land. It is possible to build a brownstone now.
Some condo developments can be more appealing than an attached dwelling.
Freestanding homes will always be increasing rare.