Market Predictions for 2006: Neighborhood Picks
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet…
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet against Williamsburg. Overall, though, we don’t think 2006 will look at all like 2005, which was marked by huge surges in prices in some rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods. From where we sit, 2006 is looking like a year for the market to take a breath and digest all the rapid-fire changes that have occurred in recent years. Barring a big move upward in rates, we think prices will more-or-less move sideways. In our own little corner of Brooklyn, the big test will be whether the upscaling of Fulton Street can extend beyond Fort Greene. Man, could we use a gourmet market in Clinton Hill! Anyway, that’s how we see it. But what do we know. We’d rather hear from you.
Happy New Year.
Brownstoner
Anon at 11:18 a.m.,
You wrote:
“Gentrification tends to take place in underutilized neighborhoods that have an existing population that is relatively stagnant or declining. An abundance of vacant or partially occupied buildings is usually a symbol of this condition.”
I’ve been in Clinton Hill (Grand between Greene and Gates) since 1989, when it was mostly a working-class black neighborhood. Very few vacant or partially occupied buildings, no declining population. (There are other parts of Clinton Hill that match your description much better.) What happened here since 1998 or so is that black families renting 2-bedroom apartments for $600 a month have been replaced by couples of every race who pay $2000. To me that’s gentrification.
Not that I blame the landlords for not turning away such a huge amount of money, nor long-time owners funding their retirement by selling brownstones for a million plus that previously sold for less than 200k. But the change has been on the backs of working black families.
I’m the one who threw out the “pc nimby” comment. I’m not the devil and in fact, I do consider myself pretty pc. Anon 12:14, thank you for informing me all about the Slope. You may be thinking of Park Slope circa 1960’s-1990’s, but if you look around, it’s no longer that diverse. I watched as it changed during the mid 80’s until a couple of years ago, when I no longer wanted to live in a privileged white community. A few years back, some people from the neighborhood were fighting a Meth clinic. I didn’t join in the fight because, although my property price would go down, I didn’t see why another neighborhood should get stuck with it either. This is when I started using the term nimbys for some Slopers. Lots of my friends from the Slope take up issues that seem pc, but at the end of the day, it’s all just talk. Sort of hypocritical. I kind of get the same feeling with this blog.
I’m sure nobody means to insult Ohio-ins specifically, but we (NYers) grew up in a diverse community and maybe we kibbitz (look it up) with folks from different backgrounds because we’re comfortable doing so. Because we’re one big happy melting pot family!! So, I think the issue here is that we don’t like being told how to act by non natives. And especially in that school teacher tone! I’m not justifying the use of racial slurs (although, in this case I don’t think “Goomba” applies only to Italians), but my point is that we all (including myself) need to look in the mirror every now and then before judging others. You know…”Let he who is without sin…”
And please refrain from commenting on my spelling and grammar.
Property values have rose across the board. A house that is 2 million in Park Slope is 8 million in Greenwich Village. There will still be a influx of people in Park Slope they will just be wealthier than trhe previous residents. The new resident of SP, CH, BD have higher incomes than the previous residents.
500K doen’t buy a great house in Brooklyn anymore.
There’s also a whole tier of “alternative” neighborhoods that have themselves become exorbitant. Once if you couldn’t afford Park Slope you moved to Prospect Heights; now that’s so expensive you move on to Crown Heights.
Anon at 3:25 – I agree that the trend has always been there for young professional types to live in alternative nabes. My point is that the trend is growing due to the high prices of other places like the slope, heights etc. NYC is seeing an unprecedented increase in property values causing the attraction of alternative neighborhoods to increase. You are and will see more people move to these neighborhaoods as they feel it is their best bet – more than ever. I’m basing this largely on what I see on a daily basis while at work.
The Chinatown section is Sunset Heights. Its a similar relationship that BedStuy and StuyHeights have except Sunset Heights is bigger.
Appraiser,
there have always been young professional who could not afford Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights and they have always lived in PLG, Crown Heights and Sunset Park. Those neighborhoods have always been less expensive. There isn’t a new trend.
Bed Stuy has experience a trend over the pass few years because there was an abundance of vacant buildings. Park Slope was in a similar position 20 years ago. It is a long process not a quiet one.
Upper West Side and other Manhattan neighborhoods will increase over the long run and direct people into Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights/Cobble Hill.
Tyler: You learn something new every day. I’ve never heard the name sunset heights — always heard it called sunset park all the way out to where the Chinatown section is.
I am a real estate appraiser in Manhattan. I don’t do Brooklyn so I don’t know the market that well. However, I live in Brooklyn and know the market on a limited basis from a personal perspective.
The market in Manhattan is slowing and the main reason is affordability. More and more people cannot afford these prices and are looking to buy in alternative neighborhoods. Go to Harlem, Washington Heights, etc. and you’ll see what I mean. These areas are booming with renovations as are many neighborhoods in Brooklyn. I do not believe the market will crash, however it will (and is) slowing down. Again, the reason is that less and less people can afford these prices. You’ll see fewer young, professional families buying in places like Park Slope as they simply cannot afford the area. That said, the fringe nabes in Brooklyn will continue to prosper as long as they are near reasonable transportation to Manhattan. In my opinion, the future is bright for townhouses in PLG, Crown Heights and Sunset Park.