Manhattan Market Up, Psychology Down in Q1
With a boost from big Wall Street bonuses, the Manhattan apartment market rose in the first quarter, edging up from December levels by about 10%. According to the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview, sales were up year-over-year by a respectable but relatively unsexy 7%. “Compared to what my friends in California and Las Vegas…
With a boost from big Wall Street bonuses, the Manhattan apartment market rose in the first quarter, edging up from December levels by about 10%. According to the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview, sales were up year-over-year by a respectable but relatively unsexy 7%. “Compared to what my friends in California and Las Vegas tell me, New York seems to be holding its own,” said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Despite both median and average prices setting new highs, psychology at least appears to have shifted: “The pendulum is right in the middle – it’s not a buyer’s market or a seller’s market,” said market guru Jonathan Miller who authored the report.
Prices Up Again After Slump [NY Times]
Housing Frenzy Slows Down [NY Daily News]
I think if interest rates keep climbing we’ll all be in for a wild ride! Yesterday 10 year treasuries hit a high …. 5.5% 10 year treasuries are in sight.. which means 7%-8% mortgages
I don’t think of houses like oil, but apparently people thought of them like tech stocks for the past few years. A normal market is welcome, but even if it slows to something that is historically high, it won’t matter. People only care about their needs, and if they need to sell, for example, and can’t, it won’t matter what the “historical” figures show at all.
Knowing something is cyclical and being stuck in a bad part of a cycle are totally different things.
Rather than comparing quarter to quarter – What is inventory today compared to average level of several years? What level of inventory tends to push prices up or what level is so large would push prices down?
What are number of sales compared to average number over number of years?
Yes, maybe market cooling off from fast paced level but what pace of sales are you going to quantify as slow or brisk or typical?
You can’t keep raising the bar based on a year or two of market out of control.
And for those forecasting a major downturn of prices based on downturn 15 years ago – don’t forget the economic factors that brought those prices down.
A more typical market is very slow appreciation – what people here seem to expect is major fluctuations like price of oil. Sky is falling or won’t be able to afford next year.
We’ve been trying to sell a lovely 2 bedroom on prime UPW for about 7 months. Our asking was way below the appraisal from two agencies. We just got an offer at 10% below asking. So I wouldn’t put much stock in these figures.
9:23,
Too early to tell. Forclosures not anticipated to peak until 2007-08. For Brooklyn, pay attention to the “For Sale” and “Open House” signs. The real estate game has no “Black Monday”. Took the last cycle about 5 years to bottom out (1987 – 1992).
I think there has been a shift in that the luxury places are selling better – but there is still more inventory and a lower $/sq ft (for luxury).
i feel it… we are just about to put our house in clinton hill on the market and i have no idea what to expect.
This isn’t the burst – this is the middle, before the downward slide, where people are hanging around confused.
Way to spin the numbers. The average prices are up 7% year over year (something that’s easily skewed by *one* large purchase), but inventory is up *60%* year-over-year, and you skipped Jonathan Miller’s notice of *decline* in price-per-square foot of condos, and measly 2.5% increase in price-per-square-foot of co-ops.
The precipice has been reached, no matter how much spin there is.