Manhattan Market Frozen
The news from across the East River ain’t good: Prices and sales volume are both down, and it’s taking a lot longer for apartments to sell; inventory is up 34 percent over last year. That’s the bottom line of the First Quarter Report from Douglas Elliman and Halstead released this morning. The number of co-op…
The news from across the East River ain’t good: Prices and sales volume are both down, and it’s taking a lot longer for apartments to sell; inventory is up 34 percent over last year. That’s the bottom line of the First Quarter Report from Douglas Elliman and Halstead released this morning. The number of co-op and condo closings fell 58 percent year-over-year and prices dropped 11 percent. (Co-op prices fared worse than condos, though that was likely skewed by fewer eight-figure co-op deals; in fact, the number of $10 million deals fell 87 percent.) Consumer confidence is the killer, said Dottie Herman, president of the Prudential Douglas Elliman brokerage firm. People are scared. They have never seen anything like this. Corcoran head Pam Liebman predicted that prices will fall further as sales volume picks up, which is good—it’s the only way for the market to find its bottom. How do you think the Brooklyn market is faring compared to this?
Apartments Sell for Less if They Are Sold at All [NY Times]
Crisis Hits Home: Manhattan Massacre [NY Post]
Photo by Rob Young
Being that I am by nature a contrarian, I take the opposite view of most academic environmentalists and believe that it is just as likely that dense cities like NY will be the least sustainable while sprawling cities will be more so. Cars are getting very clean and very efficient. The MTA on the other hand is a stone age relic that seems to be on the verge of extinction. As tolls to bridges and tunels keep going up, everything will become more and more expensive. I don’t see why crowded cities like ours will necessarily fare better than the suburbs in crisis times.
It’s a bit lame only to discuss percentage declines or “avergae price for a co-op” in articles like this. Where is the data on the current nominal value of a 3-bedroom apartment, 2-bedroom, etc.?
My opinion: when/if lots of nice Manhattan 3-bedroom apartments are under a million or rents for less than ~$3,000/month, that’s when the Brooklyn Brownstone market will be in big trouble.
chicken…my position all along was not that house prices were going to go up or even remain flat. My only position was that Brooklyn brownstones would not come off in price as much as 1. Any other part of the country and 2. NYC coops and condos. I’m still believing in a 10-15% or so reduction in brownstone prices from the top, which I believe was essentially 4Q2007.
I hope that clarifies my position on Team Bull.
“The stock market has already begun to discount the turn in the economy. It is THE leading indicator.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 2, 2009 9:42 AM”
So why were you bullish on house prices when INDU went from 14,000 to 6,500? Your Japanese experience should tell you otherwise.
Still waiting to see 1200.00 a monthe rent for a 1 bedroom in Carroll Gardens,Park Slope and Brooklyn Hieghts. I love the fact that in the CNN report on the housing bust in Manhatten they ask the Cocorean group for their opinion.
I’m not sure that global warming will do NYC any favors, sebb. Setting aside how much of the city’s land would be under water, it won’t take much of a sea level rise to make our sewage treatment plants inoperable. Then we’ll literally be up shit creek.
Iknow…all its going to take to instill confidence, get the stock market up another 1,000 points and essentially cause people to pull the trigger on buying a place will be one or two key economists calling for an earlier than expected positive GDP number. That’s all I’m saying.
If Nouriel Roubini would say something positive every Asshat with a Schwab account will pour into the market.
The stock market has already begun to discount the turn in the economy. It is THE leading indicator.
sebb: As always, you are right. You should pick up a few condos to juice your returns over the next 10 years. Don’t worry about paying 2007 prices. You should spend less time sharing your secret and more time using it to make yourself money!
Umm… Sebb, why is it exactly that NYC will be so attractive? Currently, it requires 3 times the income as compared to these soon to be abandoned suburbs to have a similar quality of life.
I’m not going to disagree that folks will finally submit to living with “density,” but NYC is not the top of the list. More likely, smaller cities will become bigger… and will probably become quite nice due to the influx of people, cash, etc. They have the flexibility for major infrastructure revisions. (Think Portland, OR or even Buffalo) Add a few million people to NYC and it’s going to just become *more* of the same… and cost more and the quality of life will decrease.