Manhattan Market Up, Psychology Down in Q1
With a boost from big Wall Street bonuses, the Manhattan apartment market rose in the first quarter, edging up from December levels by about 10%. According to the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview, sales were up year-over-year by a respectable but relatively unsexy 7%. “Compared to what my friends in California and Las Vegas…
With a boost from big Wall Street bonuses, the Manhattan apartment market rose in the first quarter, edging up from December levels by about 10%. According to the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview, sales were up year-over-year by a respectable but relatively unsexy 7%. “Compared to what my friends in California and Las Vegas tell me, New York seems to be holding its own,” said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Despite both median and average prices setting new highs, psychology at least appears to have shifted: “The pendulum is right in the middle – it’s not a buyer’s market or a seller’s market,” said market guru Jonathan Miller who authored the report.
Prices Up Again After Slump [NY Times]
Housing Frenzy Slows Down [NY Daily News]
BOO FREEKIN HOO?? Lay off the coffee you are definitely out of sorts.
The golden egg?? Probably the Asian Bird Flu. The American Pharmaceutical Firms can start fighting and profiteering over the cure and the successful businesses that will ultimately benefit from that will bid on high price housing.
The stocks will go up and the advertising will begin and we’ll all be fine.
Remember decaf in the morning. You know who you are.
sell sell sell …
no i mean buy buy buy
no ..on 3rd thought, sell
i am going to sell everything and buy canned soup
absolutely…
There’s also the likelihood that the entire economy will collapse (like Argentina’s) and we’re headed for another major great depression (ala 1930’s), in which case no one will benefit…neither homeowners nor renters/investors.
I can’t see the real estate market crashing precipitously without a similar crash occuring in the economy (unless, as poster 2:55pm suggested, we find some other golden egg to help prop up the economy).
Given that the stock market is still pretty volatile and we haven’t yet found the new golden egg, I’d say that we’re all headed for bad times if the real estate market crashes.
10:08,
Market specifics between today and 15 years ago don’t have to be the same for the result to repeat itself (dramatic price drop over a few years). All it takes is a surge in supply and a drop in demand and that is exactly where we’re headed. The point is to illustrate how slow real estate markets behave compared to that of securities.
Don’t forget about the economic factors that threaten the market of today – arguably worse. Back then, the stock market carried the economy, thus real estate. Now, real estate has carried the economy (brokerage, construction, lending, legal and REIT markets, etc. and taxes), thus real estate (affordability and buying). It’s a self-fullfilling prophecy destined for collapse unless it’s influence on the economy can be replaced by some new phenomonon.
To the person trying to sell the apt on the Upper West, what do you attribute the lack of an acceptable offer to? I.e., how has the traffic been at your open houses? Have you seen a change in activity during the 7 months? Are there a lot of similar apartments on the market?
Dead cat bounce for the Spring sales season. ’07 sellers and I/O resets are going to hit with the BIG ugly stick.
Also, during the last housing slump, the US wasn’t saddled with the same level of ridiculoous debt (though the Presidential inbreeding was there…Jr. was still a coked up booze hound), personal savings are now non-existent along with personal debt out the wazoo, an unnecessary war draining resources, and a huge shift in the overall job market…can’t find a job to pay the mortgage, unless you want to join the low-end service sector.
Looser Waste MAnagement driver bitching about how he’s buying a house (sucker) and he can’t afford to pony a measly $300 a month for health insurance. So now NYC taxpayers get to pick up the collection tab because these union idiots (civil servants included) are to “stretched” to pay for any part of their health coverage. BOO FREECKIN HOO. Join the club. But be sure and saddle yourself with that Interseest only mortgage to get that over-priced shack next to the “sanitized” Fresh Kills dump.
Even renting an apartment is beneath a waste hauler. Dumbass doesn’t know what time of day it is.
Good night and good luck.
There is a *ton* of data (to be precise) in the Miller Samuel report. While that data is hard enough to get a handle on, there are also reports from Brown Harris and Halstead and from Corcoran that purport to address the same events, with different numbers.
Jonathan Miller’s blog will track the news reports about his firm’s report <http://matrix.millersamuel.com/ >. The initial array of headlines suggests the wide array of spin on his firm’s data:
Apartment Prices Up Again After a Slump in Manhattan [NYT]
Housing frenzy slows down[NYDN]
Wall Street bonuses lift Manhattan apartment prices [Reuters]
Reports: Luxury Housing Boom May Be Reaching Its Crest [NY Sun]
First Quarter Reports: Thousand Island [NYO The Real Estate]
Housing market still steady [NY Newsday]
City Apts. Defy U.S. Bubble Trouble [New York Post]
Condo boom boosts Manhattan real estate market [Inman News]
Manhattan housing market shows weakness [CNN/Money]
Manhattan Apartment Sales Cool Off [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Climb at Slowest Pace in Three Years [Bloomberg]
A lot to chew on; a lot to spin. I am still chewing….
Clearly, absorption is major data point. Inventory is up 15.8% quarter-over-quarter and 59.6% year-over-year (I will try to find the historical inventory numbers, but Q1 2005 inventory was near historical lows, I recall).
Days on market have increased again, up to 138 (up *only* one day from the prior quarter).
Total number of sales year-over-year was essentially flat, down 1.1%. (That suggests buyers are still there.)