Last Week's Biggest Sales

“But BHO is correct about the shadow inventory.” – DCB

Thank you. The courts don’t even know who owns what. They’re unslicing and undicing mortgages. Let alone forelosing on them.

“BHO makes a lot of sense, in an extremest, sensationalist way.” – Pigeon

Thank you. The truth has that effect. It’s excruciating!

“Houses selling for 10-15 percent under ask is NORMAL.” – mopar

No argument. It’s constant. My point is the general direction of asks. They’re falling. You can sell 10% above ask and STILL be bearish if the ask suffered a thousand cuts.

“For house prices to go down in brownstone Brooklyn, you’d have to have a major cultural change — people no longer interested in living in NYC – combined with disinvestment and no jobs.” – mopar

Dead center about the major cultural change (code for austerity and a resulting lower standard of living). But the population here was still 8 mil before prices hyperinflated +200%. And where else are you going to find jobs and investment? Florida? Ehhhhhh! California? Ehhhhh! This is a worldwide collapse. It’s going to be less desirable EVERYWHERE.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Boy’s back…

Maly – Asks are generally falling. These are the top sales and 3/5 are under ask, Maly. It’s consistent with a slow moving Armageddon that HAS to happen in order to clear all the bad debt out there in NYC RE and elsewhere. We’re having a worldwide debt epidemic right now. Don’t you read the papers?

Cgar – Listed inventory is low by design (foreclosure moratoriums, 18 month defaults w/o judgements, etc), not by historically normal and sustainable debt servicing and bank balance sheet accounting.

11217 – Pres could have easily fetched 3.4 mil in 2006-07. I NEVER said a collapse has occured. I have consistently and persistently maintained that a collapse is occurING. The seasons are no excuse. YOY price changes factors them out. MOM has been consistently down and YOY will soon follow. Again. Another dip. I don’t make sense to you yet but what I’m “saying” will eventually sink in. We all learn at different paces. But it never ceases to amaze me that you don’t get the relevance of Case-Shiller (up +200% peak/trough like brownstone Brooklyn). Yes, metro-wide single fams only but from the same fundamental RE market and income metrics that all listings compete in (majority of us work in or around Manhattan – we either commute or we live in the city). Why do you think brownstoner hosts a Case-Thriller thread EVERY MONTH?! He gets it. And so does DIBS when it sways in his favor (not lately). Never mind how I “speak”. Mind my content. Shadow inventory is very real and will someday get listed. I don’t have the time nor resources to do all the leg work, do you? If so, take the burden of proof.

DIBS – I lost it when I said the DJIA would collapse to 8,000. Far too optimistic. Look at the markets now. Crazy volatile with double-digit P/E’s. WE WILL break through the March lows before a real recovery. Just can’t tell you when. Maybe no lis pendens in the outliers but that’s why they’re outliers. But yes, I’m delirious because I think we have a massive shadow inventory problem here in Brooklyn that includes Park Slope.

Boerumresident – Yes, houses in very good condition SEEM to have stabilized but they REALLY haven’t. Nothing anywhere near peak comps will be supported by the economy when Keynesian masturbating limps out.

slopefarm – You’re simply wrong. My goal post always has and always will be (unless shit gets much worse and it probably will) half off peak comps. It’s not the constant 5-10% under ask. It’s the fact the asks are generally in decline. 5-10% off (up or down) a downward moving target is the essence of why this is still a bear market, along with all the obvious economic indicators (Nations, states and localities defaulting, unemployment rising, suspension of mark-to-market accounting, etc). Prices are slowly declining and “double-dipping” because stimulus has run its course.

DCB – 50% off is a no-brainer. Mortgage rates will return towards 8% and higher because of risk and the 10x rent fundamentals will be back. 11217 tries to say GRM’s are outdated but then turn around and cite CNBC as saying that 16x is normal for NYC (how convenient since that is where we are, -20% from 20x). DIBS tries to stuff the cap rate analysis down my throat like I’m gonna do that on a macro level for every property without all the information. More accurate but GRM is where you start. It was 10x in 2003 and we are most certainly going back there price-wise in this deflationary environment. Then there’s 3x median income. We are at the beginning stages of a deflationary collapse. Credit creation and thus the money supply is contracting.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Well and now that I saw the comment in the bike thread that you like me today I feel guilty for internet yelling at you just now.

Ok I’m over it.

quote:
I mean, you could drive down my block right now and have your pick of 15 parking spaces….NO ONE IS AROUND! Not in PS anyway.

yes because people in park slope go out to the hamptons every weekend or just disappear for the summer. NOT. i see just as many around as i did in the fall and winter, in fact i see more. and the amount of cars looks exactly the same.

*rob*

BHO makes a lot of sense, in an extremest, sensationalist way.

I love his crazy posts.

11217: What’s a “mouth breather?”