Housing Crisis Will End on June 30, 2009
So says James Cramer in New York magazine this week. Prepare to break out your wallets on that date, because housing prices, he says, will bottom and it will be “the best opportunity to buy since the 19891991 real-estate crash.” He gives 10 reasons why, including the eventually evening out of supply and demand; the…
So says James Cramer in New York magazine this week. Prepare to break out your wallets on that date, because housing prices, he says, will bottom and it will be “the best opportunity to buy since the 19891991 real-estate crash.” He gives 10 reasons why, including the eventually evening out of supply and demand; the $300 billion mortgage relief legislation, turning high-interest mortgages into more modest, 30-year versions; prices lowering so much in some areas that buyers won’t be able to resist; and the slow bottoming out of New York City. Immigration and population growth will play a part too, he says, and it looks to him like we hit bottom this summer and are starting on the slow road to recovery. Well, not that slow, apparently. Who out there agrees?
End of the Housing Market Free Fall [NY Magazine]
Photo by jkeys.
dave — it wouldn’t surprise me at all if brownstone prices start going up again 2010, especially as today’s “new” construction will probably be looking a lot less trendy and shiny then while brownstones will still have their solid charm.
The uglier and shoddier stuff built from 2003-2009 will probably stay cheap.
The problem with Florida is that its just one big high-rise condo market. There are no brownstones which, as we all know, always hold their value!!!
Hey Chicken: Congratulations on your two short positions. They appear to be paying off handsomely. Don’t close them out yet!
Aussie,
Florida appears to have even more millionaires than NY
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/08/18/florida-beats-new-york-for-millionaires/
How’s their real estate market doing?
Aussie, I know a great many bankers and am a lawyer myself. I can tell you that a lot of people who make well into the 7 figures (and beyond) live with shockingly thin reserves. The instinct to spend at or above one’s means affects the rich maybe even more than the merely middle class.
There are of course many exceptions to this (myself included, being a cheap, cheap Yankee).
You don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out (Warren Buffet). There are a lot of people in very expensive NYC homes who will be forced to sell in the next couple of years.
Not that I want to aid What in his listing of doom but AIG now looks like it might go under as well!!!
Owning in both London and NY I would say London property is more expensive.
NY has more millionaires than any other city in the world. (Wall Street Journal last Saturday).
I don’t think bankers and lawyers will be selling their homes even if they do lose their jobs. They have cash reserves. What you will see (in a climate of job losses) are less lawyers and bankers moving from their rentals to buy. Will this have an effect? …it depends on the other elements of the demand side and supply side.
and then brownstone prices go through the roof again nothsloperenter because, as we all know, brownstones are the most desireable places in the world to live!!!!
Q.E.D.
wasder….I’m jump into this debate. I lived in Europe for a number of years (Amsterdam). Properties are more expensive in Europe. But buying on the open market in cheaper than renting (which is not the case in the US) – thanks to some very generous tax credits. I got almost $300 monthly from the government on my 1000euro mortgage.
But here is the thing. Those European markets are starting to soften. London is being helped by rich Russians. Russia doesn’t have a second city and since everyone can’t live in Moscow many go to London. But they can’t hold the market up forever. And do you really think a rich Russian is going to consider New York over price? So really this price issue is mute because for those in the market a couple thousand more per month does not matter.