Home Prices Continue to Slide, and NY's No Exception
The New York region isn’t immune to the housing troubles plaguing the rest of the nation, according to data released yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller indexes found that home prices in 20 large metropolitan regions fell 6.1 percent from last October to October ‘07; year-over-year values in New York, meanwhile, dropped 4.1 percent. While the…
The New York region isn’t immune to the housing troubles plaguing the rest of the nation, according to data released yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller indexes found that home prices in 20 large metropolitan regions fell 6.1 percent from last October to October ‘07; year-over-year values in New York, meanwhile, dropped 4.1 percent. While the data covers the whole New York region rather than just the five boroughs, an S&P analyst told the Sun that the numbers reflect the city’s changing fortunes. “We track a large area where the homeowners’ livelihood ties back to the New York City economy,” the chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, David Blitzer, said. “The home prices in New York have been weak, and don’t show signs of a quick turnaround. Several New York analysts, however, believe that closings on high-end properties will buoy the city’s market—closings that are tied to Wall Street bonuses. “For New York City, the wild card will be what happens with Wall Street,” Jonathan Miller, the director of research at Radar Logic, said. “The impact on real estate will be more associated with jobs and bonuses than anything else.”
Home Prices Fell Faster in October [NY Times]
A Bearish Sign for N.Y. Home Prices [NY Sun]
“It’s not like people who own houses are going to run around screaming and trying to sell”
No. They’ll be doing it quietly.
“we currently own a large apt, and are seeking to trade up to a house”
Best advice: Sell, rent, buy at bottom.
Actually, some times the kids inherit the house, and don’t want it, and need to sell in order to distribute the value – we’ve seen a number of these estate sale type houses hit the market in the last year and they have each lingered and/or had price cuts. I would be surprised if prices plummeted precipitously, due to demographic pressures, but I also would not be surprised if they declined a good 20% and more for those properties that are obviously overreaching. I don’t think any one individual on this list can “provoke” anything – the market is much bigger than any one person, obviously – but this list is a place where people who are clearly following the market closely come together to discuss specific properties and trends, and perhaps to help take the temperature of current sentiment. I know I for one see this list as just one of a number of sources I look to when thinking about our house search (we currently own a large apt, and are seeking to trade up to a house). I think it’s kind of nutty how defensive some people get on here, I must say!
Well, guess we’ll find out! It’s not like people who own houses are going to run around screaming and trying to sell. What exactly are you hoping to provoke, here? Most people I know plan to retire in the houses they own. Their kids inherit the house. And your kids inherit….a rent control apartment.
“Would really annoy me if we found we lost out on so much gain.” – 7:53
Prepare to be annoyed. You’ll never see 2007 values (real terms after inflation) again in your lifetime…
http://tinyurl.com/g9vf4
“If real-estate drops by half in NYC, we’ll all have much bigger problems. I will lose a lot of equity–for a while–and will have to tap into savings. YOU, and almost everybody else, will lose your job.”
No shit. That’s exactly where we’re headed. Your starting to see the light. This is the worst housing fallout since the Great Depression. Housing has made up the lion’s share of GDP for the last five years. Now it’s in recession. Know what that means? The whole economy is in recession. You think our jobs are safe?
But you don’t strike during the storm, you strike right after the recovery (many years from now). Prices in the future will be just as sticky on the way BACK up as they are sticky right now, on the way DOWN.
Manhattan prices dropped 50% before (in the face of significantly stronger economic conditions)…
http://tinyurl.com/2sdeg4
But historic Brooklyn is absolutely immune to such drops because…
12:13: “If you can hold on long term, do so. If not, I would get out now.”
Exactly: get out now, and sell your house to ME. I’ll spare you the ignominy of that 50% plunge in value, and pay you 75% what you paid. Better take this deal while you can!
Idiots.
You guys who think you would love to see a huge drop in house value don’t know what you’re hoping for. It’s not going to make for sudden bargains in the West Village. If real-estate drops by half in NYC, we’ll all have much bigger problems. I will lose a lot of equity–for a while–and will have to tap into savings. YOU, and almost everybody else, will lose your job.
Good luck with that.
Blah de blah. Stats on national average-home-prices are useless here. Just go out on the sidewalk right now, seriously do it, and try and talk a New Yorker into moving to Kansas because they can buy a house there for 1/4 the price. Good luck! Ain’t happening. We and everyone we know in NYC would literally not have a job if they moved outside NYC. The only work we can get in this whole country in our field is in NYC. Even an immigrant taxi driver the other day said to us, completely on his own unprovoked btw, that NYC is expensive but “it is the only place to make money”. Prices may drop but not 50%. Dream on losers.
7:53,
Since WWII, home prices have followed average historic inflation (and more buyer-favorable rental and income rations). If this time is no different, a bottom to bottom estimation (last bottom to that of the future) would yield about a 50% drop. Most owners can’t fathom it. But back in 1995, these same owners would not have been able to fathom a forecast that said prices would triple in value. Things are rarely what they seem. To popular opinion, it doesn’t seem like Historic Brooklyn prices will drop by much but more shocking things have happened. If you can hold on long term, do so. If not, I would get out now.