Gloom And Doom for RE Outside of NYC
Fortune Magazine is ratcheting up the real estate bubble rhetoric with several stories on the topic: We’re not forecasting a nationwide housing collapse. For one thing, the vast expanse of America between the coasts was never touched by real estate mania and is in no danger of a meltdown. And even some overheated markets -…
Fortune Magazine is ratcheting up the real estate bubble rhetoric with several stories on the topic:
We’re not forecasting a nationwide housing collapse. For one thing, the vast expanse of America between the coasts was never touched by real estate mania and is in no danger of a meltdown. And even some overheated markets – including Manhattan, Los Angeles and California’s Orange County – are still simmering. But things are suddenly looking very chilly indeed in four coastal cities – Boston, Washington, Miami and San Diego – as well as three Western boomtowns: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Sacramento. So far this year, monthly sales have fallen 11 percent to 25 percent in Miami, Boston, northern Virginia and San Diego, according to local housing experts.
This is an interesting back drop for the anecdotal evidence we’ve been hearing that things in Brooklyn have been picking up a bit in recent weeks. Maybe it’s just a seasonal pick-up.
Welcome to the Dead Zone [Fortune]
i see brooklyn freezing for a while but there is so much going on all over brooklyn that in 5-10 years everyone will then be choosing brooklyn straight away vs. the old days of being priced out of manhattan and then brooklyn as the back up for most. brooklyn is set for a major renaissance not all good but many thing that will bring brooklyn and all it’s areas into it’s own identity as a city.
Echoing Ed and JoshK. My Westchester sources (who happen to be brokers) are citing high inventory and unrealistic pricing by Sellers as the cause for longer lenght of stay on the shelves. Starter homes in the $400 to $600 range (viz: Mt Vernon and other non-marquee areas) are being snapped up. [My broker friends are also complaining about all the new brokers entering into the markets ;-)]
Sales in Brooklyn are happening if the pricing is on target [realistic] and the quality is there. When the market gets tight, people revert to fundamentals:
1. Move-in condition.
2. Location (proximity to public transport, amenites, schools, [downtown NYC for the hipsters], parks, etc.)
3. Who the neighbors are or what the neighborhood story is.
I agree that gentrification will be a mitigating factor but I think Brooklyn will still take a decent hit.
Check out the Clinton Ave house in today’s “Recently Sold…” post that went in 2 weeks for over ask–granted that was a few months ago though and a unique property.
I think there is softening in Brooklyn, esp areas that had a terrificly high run-up in recent years (ft greene, clinton hill, park slope south). Of course, it hardly matters unless you bought 6 months ago.
Oh puhleeez, do not lump Ditmas Park into the same category as PLG. Get real.
It seems to be area by area and softening only on the higher end stuff in less easily accessible areas. For example, the higher end inventory in PLG and Ditmas/Midwood is staying on the market with stubborn buyers or brokers not willing to face reality and lower prices. But a great brownstone like 15 Lefferts gets snapped up in a week. Agree with Ed that the ever-rising value of living in Brooklyn coupled with great housing stock will affect Brooklyn less than other areas. Seems to be split between a buyers and sellers market right now.
What about the anecdotal evidence pointing to a slow down in our area. Yesterday you highlighted a property that was on the market for 5 months and ended up going 50K under ask. Thats not very encouraging for prospective sellers. I was walking down Clermont Ave a few days ago. There are currently 5 properties within a one block radius of PS 20 that have been sitting since the beginning of the year. Last spring these properties would have gone to contract within days.
When does anecdotal evidenece actually become hard cold facts?
There has been a big slowdown in the burbs since last fall.
Meanwhile, if Brooklyn seems to be acting independently, that’s because there’s major gentrification going on. Brooklyn is becoming more valuable than it used to be with respect to Manhattan. I predict a bursting bubble won’t burst as much here.