Furman: Gloomy First Quarter for NYC Housing
Yesterday NYU’s Furman Center released its report on the city’s housing market for the first three months of the year, and aside from the downward trend in foreclosures citywide, the numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. With respect to Brooklyn, the total number of sales in the first quarter, 1,695, represented a 21 percent year-over-year…
Yesterday NYU’s Furman Center released its report on the city’s housing market for the first three months of the year, and aside from the downward trend in foreclosures citywide, the numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. With respect to Brooklyn, the total number of sales in the first quarter, 1,695, represented a 21 percent year-over-year decline and a 19 percent dip from Q4 2010. Furman’s “index of housing price appreciation,” meanwhile, pegged Brooklyn as down 28 percent from the peak of the market, which the center defines as the fourth quarter of 2006. On a slightly more positive note, notices of foreclosure in Brooklyn were down 15 percent from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the report says that new residential building permits were basically nonexistent in Brooklyn—25 units in total, down 65 percent from the same period last year—and across the city as a whole, which only saw 158 new units green-lighted, a 45 percent drop from the same time last year.
New York Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 1st Quarter [PDF; NYU Furman Center]
That can only be established in hindsight, because of the seasonality of the business. It may be the bottom is behind us; I personally doubt it. I think we are going to continue crawling at the bottom for a while, up and down with the seasons, until the economy is on a more solid footing.
not what i am told prices for unrenovated townhouses coming up after being flat
this is not longer a downmarket, what i am trying to say
market has turned in commercial in manhattan, dumbo almost sold out of office space, retail rocking…..
market has turned this is not a downmarket anymore
bk, I try to leave the future to BHO, and keep to the immediate past. I really wish Urbandigs covered Brooklyn, because his stuff is the best.
There is a lag of 3-4 months between a deal and a close, so I agree with you, first quarter is a bit of a misnomer if you think it’s covering current deals. It reflects accurately the market between September-December 2010, which took a bit of a pause after the hot spring/summer season & reflation. I think this spring was also pretty hot from anecdotal evidence; I’ll wait for the second quarter report to find out exactly what happened. I’d guess the prices are up, the volume is down against last year. I also think the classic trend of differentiation in downmarkets is continuing, so that averages hide a tale of three cities: reflation for prime properties in renovated condition, decline for less than prime stuff, sharp decline for problem properties.
Speaking of sales, is it right that if owner occupancy in a condo drops below a certain percentage, Fannie Mae will not get involved in a loan, meaning you can’t sell the condo because a buyer couldn’t get a loan? I’m trying to buy now, but heard that, and am mortified by such a prospect, obviously. No one seems to know the real percentage. Help!
Mopar, Maly: if you do averages, and small units sell, average prices go down; if there is no inventory, units sales go down.
And it isn’t just brownstone brooklyn go into Kensington/Ocean Parkway market go to Red Hook
things have changed
not all prices up, but velocity and activity is up
that is key
though QNS is not rocking, all of brooklyn seeing increased activity this year. closings in february are deals from LAST year. Manhattan studios and ones plentiful, but prices NOT going down.
The market has turned.
Best way to context: to those whom to market is moving, they are 3 mos ahead; to those whom market is moving against, they are three months behind. I.E., if unit worth 500k, seller thinks 550 and buyer things 450.
market moving to sellers, believe it or not
Why is it so hard to understand that even though the market as a whole is down from the peak, brownstone Brooklyn is still frothy? There are some solid sales prices in prime neighborhoods, sometimes even surpassing the spring 2008 peak, but that not what the Furman center is tracking. They are looking at all the sales, not just what would be featured in this blog.
Every time their report comes out, the usual suspects squeal and scream about how “stupid” it is. It’s not wrong or stupid, it’s just not measuring the pocket of hotness you care about (fancy brownstones and new condos.)
It’s the same story in Manhattan: prices and averages keep sliding down, and all the numbers are down from the peak, but there are super-fancy houses and condos establishing new heights.
Realestateveteran, thanks for the great commentary. But I don’t understand: Stats say sales prices and volume down — because it’s out of date? Why does it not reflect prices up?
For great analysis of RE market as it unfolds – and a deeper understanding of the perils of real estate statistics – check out http://www.urbandigs.com – he tracks the Manhattan market but I think that’s relevant for Bkln – he has created all these innovative ways to track real time stats and analyzes more traditional reports as they come out and explains how they should be interpreted.
It means that it is hard to see the waves off shore from the parking lot of the beach…. in not in the water, can’t tell the temperature
i like seeing rents stable too, support Rent Stabilization, did 1000 units of affordable housing, and often say that, while great for owners that houses in Bed-Stuy (most of which is surely not a ghetto) go for 900k but what do their kids do to stay in the neighborhood…. so we are not feeling different
i am just describing the scene