Elliman Releases 3Q Market Report
The Douglas Elliman 3Q Market Overview for Brooklyn, prepared by Miller Samuel and available here, is out this morning and the numbers are decent. Here are the summary stats: – Median sales price increased 2% to $485,504 from $476,000 in the prior year quarter and increased 4.9% from $463,000 in the prior quarter. – Average…
The Douglas Elliman 3Q Market Overview for Brooklyn, prepared by Miller Samuel and available here, is out this morning and the numbers are decent. Here are the summary stats:
– Median sales price increased 2% to $485,504 from $476,000 in the prior year quarter and increased 4.9% from $463,000 in the prior quarter.
– Average sales price increased 7.2% to $583,790 from $544,676 in the prior year quarter and increased 7.1% from $545,110 in the prior quarter.
– Number of sales increased 1.7% to 1,879 from 1,847 sales in the prior year quarter but fell 2.7% from 1,931 units in the prior quarter.
– Listing inventory increased 18.4% to 6,630 units from 5,600 units at this time last year.
– Days on market was 109 days, down from 165 days this time last year.
– Listing discount was 5%, down from 5.6% in the prior year quarter.
Of perhaps special interest to readers is the news that the median sales price was $1,265,000, up 11.9% from the prior year quarter result of $1,130,000, and that the number of sales increased 95.2% to 121 units, from 62 units in the same period last year. Not too shabby.
Of course, south brooklyn ?! is going down but noone mentions that north brooklyn has gone down too, about 20% off peak. This will continue. Noone will be spared. prime and non-prime blocks. Whether house prices follow inflation or income is irrelevant as bot remain stagnant. Cheer lead as you want there are no buyers left.
Usually, people who get priced out of areas like Brooklyn Heights, Cobble Hill or Park Slope will look to buy in nearby areas but aren’t as well-established. When we decided to buy, we wound up moving from Cobble/Boerum Hill to just off Washington Ave in the Prospect/Crown Heights neutral zone–the place we bought would have been literally twice as expensive in our old neighborhood two miles to the west.
11217: Regarding your 11:49 comment about people wanting to buy in New York, I think it’s a big psychological barrier. Of course, in a lot of places homebuying requires a degree of confidence, but in NYC there’s a perception that you have to be rich to own–that it’s not something middle class people can do.
It’s reinforced by articles/studies that always depict New York as a place where you’re much better off renting than buying.
But that ignores the diversity in housing choices. It makes more sense financially to pay $2500/month on the mortgage for a $500K 2br apartment in Brooklyn than it does to pay $2000 to rent a studio in Tribeca.
The report confirms what I thought I was seeing. The luxury nabes are doing quite well but prices in further out areas continue to slowly fall.
We have gone to a lot of open houses and are closely tracking the middle-range, $600-850K, single family market in Kensington, Ditmas and northern Midwood, and also Bay Ridge. Elliman calls all that “South Brooklyn.” It feels like places are staying the market a long time, with big discounts to get the deal done. Agressively priced homes are moving as well as places on primo blocks (prime Ditmas, for example), but everything else is creeping along. Elliman shows sales in South Brooklyn down 5.9% (after down 21.5% last quarter) and sales price falling 2.9% (after down 2% last quarter).
I wonder what the relationship is between these areas and brownstone Brooklyn? If prices keep falling in Bay Ridge does it then get more Park Slope refugees to keep prices up?
Novanglus,
Your comment at 11:47 just hit the nail on the head. And it’s also the reason why I never felt Williamsburg was the “it” neighborhood that some think it is. A handful of great restaurants and bars do not make a neighborhood.
Parks/green space, good schools and transportation do.
I’d much rather live within close proximity to Prospect Park than to Marlow & Sons. And that’s not to say that great restaurants aren’t important also, but when your neighborhood relies too heavily on those sorts of things, it doesn’t attract the kind of people who create a stable neighborhood. We are now seeing that in the Williamsburg condo market which is now very transient and volatile. People buying condos to rent them out or to stay a few years, renters leaving because they’re being priced out very rapidly and new buyers leaving because they are missing the green space and great schools and transportation.
Who knows, it may all settle down in 10 years and become a more stable healthy place.
I hadn’t seen that article novanglus, but I enjoyed it. Thanks for passing it along.
I do agree with the premise of the article. Especially as it pertains to NYC which is such a luxury good driven market.
I have friends here (renters in their 30’s) and all they talk about these days is how they want to buy an apartment in NYC. They see it as the ultimate luxury good.
Nyguy7:
In his piece for NY Mag, Nate Silver suggested that the greatest value would be in places near features that would be the most difficult/expensive/time-consuming to introduce–namely green space and especially public transportation. Bars, restauarants and shops get started a lot quicker than parks and subway lines. With virtually every subway line in Brooklyn running through the greater downtown area (including Borough Hall, Jay Street/Metrotech, and Atlantic Terminal) I think you’re right about Downtown Brooklyn being very well-positioned.
It’s all about the fundamentals–outdoor/green space and convenient transportation never go out of style.
11217:
I’m assuming you caught this analysis by David Leonhardt in the NY Times?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/08/business/economy/08leonhardt.html
He essentially concludes that housing tracks as a luxury good–it rises with income as opposed to staples that track costs/inflation. That would certainly fit in with your thesis.
Which makes sense in urban areas–choice of neighborhood and home contributes more to quality of life than just about any other expenditure–one derives more enjoyment from having a nice home in a nice neighborhood than driving a nice car and eating in nice restaurants.
I wonder what the future will hold for places that derive their value from being near Manhattan as an attraction vs those being near more localized attractions–especially Prospect Park, Botanical Gardens, etc.
“Most also comment how terrible the transportation issues are…I mean last weekend there was NO L SERVICE AT ALL!!!”
Exactly. That’s why I think DoBro is in a much better position. The infrastructure is already there and the surrounding neighborhoods are already established. A lot of parts may still look shitty now but in about 10 years that will all change.
There never was anyway that so many condos could be built and concentrated in one area and have them retain their value. Williamsburg is simply awash in unwanted luxury housing. Can’t believe that situation went unchecked by any authority.