Elliman: Brooklyn Market Improved in 2nd Quarter But...
Sales volume in Brooklyn leapt 20.4 percent between the first quarter and second quarter of 2009 and the median price of co-ops and condos ticked up 2.9 percent, according to a report out this morning from Prudential Douglas Elliman. “It suggests there was pent-up demand from unusually low activity,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real…
Sales volume in Brooklyn leapt 20.4 percent between the first quarter and second quarter of 2009 and the median price of co-ops and condos ticked up 2.9 percent, according to a report out this morning from Prudential Douglas Elliman. “It suggests there was pent-up demand from unusually low activity,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real estate appraiser Miller Samuel, which compiled the report for Prudential Douglas Elliman. Before everyone breaks out the champagne and declares the real estate market in recovery, though, the report also notes that volume was off 29.7 percent versus a year earlier. Prices were also down dramatically from a year earlier; for example, the average price of a one- to three-family home in Brownstone Brooklyn fell 15.9 percent. “Unemployment is still rising, credit has not loosened and we still have a very weak economic environment,” Miller said. Click on chart above for larger view.
Brooklyn Market Overview 2Q 2009 [Elliman]
Home sales in Brooklyn, Queens rise as prices tumble [NY Daily News]
Glimmer of Hope for Brooklyn Market [NY Post]
BHO always likes to dispute the facts. Look up the definition of “fact.” If you want to dispute the methodology then please elaborate.
Maybe get off your lazy ass and actually pull up the report and read it.
“The data from the Prudential Douglas Elliman reports show that 1-3 family price psf peaked in 3Q08 and that we are now -18% from the peak. Not bad at all, folks, not bad at all.”
I just jumped off a 12 story building but at this instant I’m only down to the 10th floor. Not bad at all. I should be fine. No worries.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Price/income. Idiots like Dibs actually think we’ll go back to the peak in 3 yrs. This guy is the best! LOL
“the average price of a one- to three-family home in Brownstone Brooklyn fell 15.9 percent”
Now that is UTTERLY IMPOSSIBLE!!! Brownstone Brooklyn TM is completely decoupled from the NY Case-Shiller Index (old 1 fams only, no co-ops and condos). Right Team Bull?
All year-over-year data, the only data that matters, is in the red. Even sales. The real pain will come when year-over-year volume bounces back up. That’ll mean capitulation – sellers, banks and investors saying “fuck it!”.
***Bid half off peak comps***
“Is there some reason that you wouldn’t be bullish on Brooklyn brownstones over the next 3-5 years from where we are now or even slightly lower??? You cannot tell me that prices will be off 50-70% without providing a well defined set of parameters that would cause that to happen”
Ok, I’d like to hazard an opinion…I think we’re heading for an L shaped recovery, and that over a several years. I would be “bullish” on brownstones if I thought inflation would push prices, but I don’t think that’s going to happen, not for a few years anyway.
Well, according to the report the price of *two-families* in NW Brooklyn is actually up. So I’m sitting pretty! Ka-CHING!
I’m kidding, but that’s one reason I’m skeptical about reading too much into the limited data in these reports, one way or another.
Someone asked about the 1990s decline… If memory serves, YOY prices in Manhattan fell every year from 1990 all the way to 1997. (In 1997, arguably the trough, I tried to buy a place in Chelsea. I could not get a loan with 20% down and didn’t have more $. The purchase price was $119k!. Lending was tight, like right now, which was a big contributor to the decline in prices.)
Of course, just because that’s what happened then doesn’t mean history will repeat itself exactly. The NYC murder rate also peaked in 1990, and in 2009 NYC is the safest big city in the USA. The population has also been growing.
Personally, I think the market still has a way to go down…. Since I own now, though, I am keeping my fingers crossed for stagnant lateral movement for several years as opposed to a huge drop.
yeah you guys are right there is no reason to believe that after the greatest real estate bubble of the century the down cycle will only last a year or two. Sold to you!
According to Bloomberg online NY now has the largest overhang of subprime mortgages in the country.
I don’t see how it is remotely possible that NYC real estate will come back faster that it has in other down cycles, as DIBS is desperately hoping. In any case, there will be plenty of time to get in at the bottom because real estate changes trend very slowly.
By the way, the stock market has experiened a very nice…
Dead Cat Bounce
(take some profits off the table NOW)