Elliman: Brooklyn Market Improved in 2nd Quarter But...
Sales volume in Brooklyn leapt 20.4 percent between the first quarter and second quarter of 2009 and the median price of co-ops and condos ticked up 2.9 percent, according to a report out this morning from Prudential Douglas Elliman. “It suggests there was pent-up demand from unusually low activity,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real…
Sales volume in Brooklyn leapt 20.4 percent between the first quarter and second quarter of 2009 and the median price of co-ops and condos ticked up 2.9 percent, according to a report out this morning from Prudential Douglas Elliman. “It suggests there was pent-up demand from unusually low activity,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real estate appraiser Miller Samuel, which compiled the report for Prudential Douglas Elliman. Before everyone breaks out the champagne and declares the real estate market in recovery, though, the report also notes that volume was off 29.7 percent versus a year earlier. Prices were also down dramatically from a year earlier; for example, the average price of a one- to three-family home in Brownstone Brooklyn fell 15.9 percent. “Unemployment is still rising, credit has not loosened and we still have a very weak economic environment,” Miller said. Click on chart above for larger view.
Brooklyn Market Overview 2Q 2009 [Elliman]
Home sales in Brooklyn, Queens rise as prices tumble [NY Daily News]
Glimmer of Hope for Brooklyn Market [NY Post]
Brickoven–
Let’s just say appreciation is around 250% once substantial improvements are factored in–and was even higher a few years back.
> DitmasSnark…you need to provide some specifics as to why it’s not likely
Nah, I think not, I prefer to speak in metaphors. For example, your bullish stance on the real estate market reminds of the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3oW12hWu5w
Dave is toast and he is just starting to realize it how are those asian markets buddy? Funny that you work in asian markets and did not realize that Japan is still 70 percent off its peak. Hilarious!
Ok, thanks dibs. So, if inflation does not affect wages, if wages stagnate even, where will consumers find the oomph to buy inflated assets? Am I understanding this correctly?
DitmasSnark…you need to provide some specifics as to why it’s not likely and not just lurk and act as the thread monitor. 🙂
Kris, you said “If you have a long timeline, the math will most likely work out nicely in your favor”. What exactly did you mean by that?
***Bid half off peak comps***
> I’d be quite happy if we got back to peak prices in 4-6 years.
And I want a pet flying unicorn, DIBS, but that’s not likely either.
I’d be quite happy if we got back to peak prices in 4-6 years. I think it will happen with brownstones…condos might take longer.
Inflation will only start after the economy is a bit stronger…2H 2010 maybe.
But, the movement in the yield curve over different maturities will be more significant. We expect the 5-10 year treasuries to fall in price (yields rise) maybe even sooner. the 30 Year is probably correctly predicting long term inflation still at these levels. That rate got to 5.4% in 2006 and we loaded up on 30 year treasuries. i doubt that rate will be seen again soon.
Inflation this time around will not be “wage-led” which is the most detrimental type of inflation.
As long as there is excess liquidity in the system, and there will be for quite awhile, it will eventually find its way into real estate just like it already has in the stock market. this is classic risk seeking behaviour with the downside being the sale of riskless assets, treasuries.
We are already seeing rising property prices in Hong Kong and China as they come out of their recession first globally. China GDP was just reported at 7.9% last night.