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My dog’s cousin’s hairdresser says 7500.
So I see we now have predictions of 8000, 6000, 4000 and 3000; all of course backed up by strong fundamental analysis. LOL
setancre
I think your 1.64% growth rate is flawed due to the deflation experienced in the 1930s and the price controls of the WWII period. A better metric would be 1945 until today.
Iron balls has a point. Most bad market crashes lose at least 80 percent from the top. That would but us at around 3000. That would be scary. If you play the market use options as a hedge.
Gatesave I wasn’t asserting an opinion on where the DOW is going. To be perfectly honest, it looks enticing to me to buy right now as well. I was just stating factually that with the inflation-adjusted average of 1.64% growth since 1924, the DOW would be worth approx 6763 right now. If you think it is worth more, than it would be because you think the growth rate has changed and is higher in the last X number of years. If you think the growth rate will stay at it’s historical average rate, than 6700ish is the number should expect the DOW to return to in a “perfect” correction right now. What the DOW will be 10 years from now I have no idea largely because I have no idea what inflation would look like either.
Point being, after doing the calculations, I decided to hold off investing add’l money (which I have been seriously considering the last few days) and thought it’d be nice to let others know how the math works out as well.
In the goood old days, when stiffly-saluting captains went down into the briney at the helms of their ships, stockbrokers would jump off the window ledges when this sort of thing happened.
No pride in the job nowadays.
What we’re doing this weekend: visiting Chelsea galleries and getting ready for out of town guests…while taking care of our very elderly aunt…
🙂
It takes a guy with iron balls to make a bold faced prediction like that!!!! What are you going to do if it never gets that low??
I’m gonna start buying at DOW 6000
But Dow 4000 also has a nice ring to it.
In 1994 I remember the Dow being around 4000.
Doesn’t the 4 in 1994 and 4000 seem to have a poetic and somehow fitting symmetry?