Douglas Elliman Q1 Report: Down and Downer
Not surprisingly, prices and volume in Brooklyn were both down in the first quarter of 2009 versus both the Q4 and Q1 2008, according to the latest market report from Douglas Elliman. The median sales price fell to $474,600 from $490,000 in the prior quarter and $527,000 a year earlier. Likewise, the number of transactions…
Not surprisingly, prices and volume in Brooklyn were both down in the first quarter of 2009 versus both the Q4 and Q1 2008, according to the latest market report from Douglas Elliman. The median sales price fell to $474,600 from $490,000 in the prior quarter and $527,000 a year earlier. Likewise, the number of transactions was 1,186, down from 1,846 in the fourth quarter and 2,761 in the first quarter of 2008. The median price declines were consistent across all property types: Condos (-8.6%), Co-ops (-11.4%), 1-3 Family (-10.6%), Luxury (-9.2%). East Brooklyn was by far the hardest hit, with median prices plummeting 25% year-over-year. Townhouses in Northwest Brooklyn fared pretty badly, too, with median prices falling to $1,087,500 from $1,287,500 in the fourth quarter and $1,200,000 a year earlier.
Market Reports [Douglas Elliman]
I don’t agree with 10thStReno’s point at all. If you bought in 2007 with 20% down you would have lost 100% of your equity at this point, not the 45% you would have lost with an unlevered purchase of an S&P 500 fund. People often forget how risky leveraged investing is, tax advantaged or not.
“Now, I’m a product of my environment.”
Cop out. You can choose to be reasonable or not. You certainly would find a more receptive audience for your often intelligent posts. Its to your own detriment that you cloud what you say with macho posturing and other foolishness.
There, I’ve completely put the Bears vs. Bulls argument to rest. Isn’t anyone going to attack me?
BHO- and we thought you’d be grateful! We made you the man you are today. 🙂
“all the mud-slinging and bravado is unnecessary on both sides”
From this side, it was a response to the other side. Don’t start none, won’t be none. I used to be polite when I first posted anonymously on brownstoner, just respectfully stating opinions. Now, I’m a product of my environment.
***Bid half off peak comps***
We don’t need to speculate.
Everything you’re arguing about is right there in the sales data:
***Subprime Brooklyn has indeed fallen more than prime Brooklyn. Median price in East Brooklyn is down 25.2 percent year over year, and 11.7 percent for the quarter. Median price in Northwest Brooklyn is up (yes, up!) 1.4 percent year over year, and up 6.9 percent for the quarter.
***However, townhouses in Northwest Brooklyn are declining. The median price of a townhouse decreased 9.4 percent year over year (modest, compared to all prices in Eastern Brooklyn) but in Q1 the median price decreased 15.5 percent — actually more than all prices in Eastern Brooklyn (11.7 percent). Price declines on townhouses are accelerating. But so far they’re only down about 10 percent since 2008. Hardly the 50 percent drop the bears have been waiting for. At least not yet. I know, I know — WAIT TILL THE FALL.
“Team Bull wins out long term.”
Not in real inflation-adjusted terms from these prices. You will not see another boom like we just did in your lifetime. You’ll see one (probably 20 years from now) but it won’t bring prices back to where they are now when adjusted to 2009 dollars. Understand the time value of money.
“As for re-investing rent vs down payment, they would be far worse off over the last 2 years.”
Not in cash and/or gold.
“Interest rates will not be this low forever.”
Neither will prices be high. How many times do I have to say this? Enough money saved at a high enough rate and put down on a cheaper house can annhilate interest rate spikes.
“What you save as the market girates you could easily lose and some when rates move up to combat the result of the monumental fiscal expansion – inflation.”
Not if you save in cash (higher interest rates would favor you – hold short for deflation) and/or gold and/or other commodities (hold long for inflation). Inflation and higher interest rates is inevitable but if you hedge conservatively, you are not likely to lose. NYC RE bought at current comps within 25% of the peak is all but a sure loss.
“That is, if you’ve been ‘waiting out’ the market during 2008 and you had your money in the stock market you’d have lost about 45% or more of it.”
Huge IF. Explore the cash/gold scenario. You’ve conveniently left it out.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Its too bad the What doesn’t have anything big enough to “tear you a new one.”
Someone should explain to the What the definition of “diversification.”
“All this crowing over absolutes is silly. No one, and I mean no one, can know for sure what the market will do in the end. We do all seem to agree by now that it has further to fall, and some of us think it can fall by as much as 50% (or more) and others think 25% total is more likely. Each of us can place our own bets, but all the mud-slinging and bravado is unnecessary on both sides: bull (DIBS) and bear (BHO).”
So when Team Retard tears you a new one and you go currying back into the corner, will you be so magnanimous then??? MM give me a break!
“What moved the goalpost from October to November. We’re just having a party.”
Nice Dave… I hope your “investment” holds up.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…