Corcoran: 'Brooklyn Pricing May Be Reaching Bottom'
Although the data from Property Shark shows that prices were down by at least 10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 versus 2008, Corcoran’s latest market report boldly states that “Brooklyn pricing may be reaching bottom as the national and local economies strengthen and sales activity increases versus the first half of 2009.” Some…
Although the data from Property Shark shows that prices were down by at least 10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 versus 2008, Corcoran’s latest market report boldly states that “Brooklyn pricing may be reaching bottom as the national and local economies strengthen and sales activity increases versus the first half of 2009.” Some of that optimism stems from the fact that prices are decreasing at a slower rate than in previous quarters. The stats from the resale market—median prices slipped just 2 percent year-over-year—were also encouraging; single-family townhouses held up particularly well, with the median price in the fourth quarter ticking up 13 percent from the third quarter and a whopping 51 percent from the same period a year earlier. For details on how different neighborhoods fared, check out the report.
4th Quarter 2009 Brooklyn Report [Corcoran]
I predict further price declines in 2010, with the usual set of biases (prime properies fare best, new condos and / or “fringe” areas get hit hardest). I’m not prepared to predict an amount of the decline. But definitely negative.
Antidope, you’re probably right but bank is probably more open to a bigger discount than a normal seller. but bottom line is if one doesn’t try, one gets NOTHING. Plans dont always work out but not planning to do something guarantees nothing materializes
Its all smoke and mirrors anyway. Who actually beleives any new tax on anything,Banks,Oil,Pharma, whatever, will actually “Go to paying the taxpayers back”.
Fat chance of that happening – do you think you will get a check in the mail for your share of the proceeds? Or even a reduction in your taxes or a paydown of the deficit? Any new tax will just be added to the spending wish list of politicians and become the new baseline for ever increased taxing and spending.
2-4 fam [the segment that matters – all else will either fare worse (apartments) or have less influence on the overall market (single-fams)]:
YOY price avg: -16%
YOY price med: -24%
QOQ price avg: -17%
QOQ price med: -23%
YOY volume: +59%
QOQ volume: +20%
So the data says we’re double-dippING in prices (reGOVery stimulii on low summer/fall volume now fading) but single-dippED in volume as it is now spiking. +20% in sales over one small quarter compared to +59% over a whole year is pretty significant because +20% for all four quarters would have been +100% YOY.
As I said yesterday, volume peaks twice in a cycle. Once before the top (euphoric climax), and once before the bottom (capitulation). We cannot discuss a bottom in prices until we agree that volume has peaked again. Even Corcoran wouldn’t agree with that as they say “sales activity increases”.
“Some of that optimism stems from the fact that prices are decreasing at a slower rate than in previous quarters.” – brownstoner
Because of the double-dip created by the temporary relief of the reGOVery.
Also, how much has volume decreased for 1-fams? Corcoran says it’s down but I couldn’t find their number on how much. If it decreased by a lot (just a few sales here and there), then these touted +13 and +59 percent numbers are even more misleading than they already are because 1-fams don’t largely influence the overall market in the first place.
I’m more confident than ever that 2-4 fam brownstone prices will fall in half from peak comps.
***Help Haiti***
The majority of the TARP loss comes primarily from AIG, GM + Chrysler. GM + Chrysler got bailed out because its ok to bailout unions. Not sure who AIG had the goods on.
TARP Loss on banks will be a fraction of the money that the Federal Government loses on Fannie Mae + Freddie MAC which somehow managed to avoid being hit with the new tax designed to recoup losses from the bailout and managed to avoid being covered by the pay czar.
I’m all for regulation too but the proposal could result in some dire consequences for the economic recovery. It will cost Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, UBS, and Deutsche Bank as much as $13 bln in revenue.
But there will be loopholes. I’m sure of it.
Bernanke get rid of all this garbage and bad blood! Raise interst rates and let the chips fall where they may.
the government, especially states, are losing money like crazy due to reduced tax revenues after the shadow banking system brought the economy to its knees.
u need another shock first.
have u seen any decent reo property in brownstone bkln?
no, right, bc in these ‘hoods banks put up the stuff with a broker and it sells just like any other home…at market price. and brownstone bkln is not distressed…
i can read your mind: “not YET distressed.”
lossforwords-sure, the govt has made money on those banks that have returned money, but overall tarp is still in the hole over $100 bio, so to say taxpayer’s have made money is equivalent to hedge fund managers scraping money off their investor *profits* before actually returning any cash, much less the capital invested. iow, it’s bogus accounting that investors shouldn’t’ve put up with (thank you mr bubble) and taxpayers shouldn’t have to live with. without the taxpayer support, a) a good majority of these banks wouldn’t be in business and b) the vast majority of the trading profits earned in 2009 would not exist (free leverage via off market haircuts at the fed on top of 0% FIDC loans).