Another Third Quarter Market Report
Douglas Elliman wasn’t the only brokerage firm to put out a third quarter market report for Brooklyn yesterday, they were just the only ones to get it to us ahead of time. Not to worry: There’s nothing earth-shattering in the Corcoran report that finally landed in our inbox mid-morning yesterday, but it does paint a…
Douglas Elliman wasn’t the only brokerage firm to put out a third quarter market report for Brooklyn yesterday, they were just the only ones to get it to us ahead of time. Not to worry: There’s nothing earth-shattering in the Corcoran report that finally landed in our inbox mid-morning yesterday, but it does paint a slightly rosier picture: Median apartment prices rose 8% from $575,000 to $623,000 and price per square foot increased 6% from $627 to $665, according to the Big C’s calculations. Interestingly, after hitting a two year low in the first quarter, the number of condo and co-op sales trended up for the second quarter in a row. Depending on whether you look at average or median prices, 1-4 family houses were either up a little or down a little. You can view the one-page report here.
lechacal: As you sit here and try to tell everyone that you believe the housing market will fail i will continue to put my money into the stock market and continue to buy homes in NYC and watch you cry in a few years as values take off. Good luck with your negative forecast. Try eating some Oatmeal and have a Glass of Wine you might live a little Longer.
Reading Sebb’s posts, I get the sense that he really thinks that whoever wins a shouting match between housing bulls and housing bears will have the power to move the market accordingly. It’s almost like he is afraid that if he doesn’t come here every day and fight as hard as he can for his viewpoint his property will lose value. Sebb, the market doesn’t hear you. The market will do what it does. You placed your bets. Now you can sit back and observe and offer your views, but the cheerleading is awkward and transparent. Do you honestly think you are going to change the way a single person approaches a real estate decision? Really?
To the subject at hand, a Corcoran report is not worth the paper it is printed on. Unless it is government or independent (non-industry) data, you might as well be reading Enron’s 2000 annual report.
Boerum Hill that is a great point when my sister bought a few years back her closing costs were well over 50k.
And by the way, I think some sellers are pricing conservatively now, and I think they are smart. Again, if I loved a property, and the price were affordable to me and made sense relative to comps (which these days means, a bit below recent comps to reflect change in market), and I thought I could stay for a while, I really do think it would be fine to buy. It just depends on how patient you are, what your current situtian is, what the property you’re considering is, etc. Everyone’s situation is different, and everyone can make their own decisions.
In NYC, one thing you have to factor into getting in and out of owning real estate is the transaction costs. When I bought my house in 2003, closing costs were about 5%-6% of the purchase price (title insurance, mortgage recording tax, manasion tax etc(. I’ve never sold a house, but figure it will cost another 8%-10% to exit (borker’s fee + transfer tax etc.). That adds up to about 13%-15% cost.
Sebb, as I’ve stated repeatedly, I’ve been on the “sidelines” only a few months, since I sold this past spring. I know for a fact that the price of my property would not have gone up since that time (and in fact, may have gone down), and several of the properties I later looked at and considered buying subsequently had big price cuts. If I had listened to you and bought them immediately, I would have paid much more than they wound up selling for. Hence, I am actually saving myself a lot of money by waiting while the market re-adjusts to the new reality (which you seem unable to accept).
You are putting words in my mouth since I never said to others not to buy, the sky is falling etc. On the contrary, I’ve pointed out that buyers in for long haul (like us) could probably buy at any time since eventually the market will recover so if you find a place you love that you want to stay in for a very long time, and that you can afford, it’s probably fine to buy. BUT, I also see that prices are still very high, but are at last declining, and well-qualified buyers who wait, (or who offer lower prices and/or hold out til sellers adjust expectations) will be rewarded. Why on earth would I want to pay, say 1.8mil on a house when I’ve seen that seen that same house get cut to 1.6 in a matter of months? By waiting, I save well beyond the cost of rent, tax breaks, amortization reduction and everything else on your list. And no, I don’t think the sky is necessarily falling, but the market IS clearly turning. It may take a while, and no one – not you, not I – can know for sure the extent of the reversal, but there is undoubtedly a reversal going on. If people want to pay today’s high prices, that’s their perogative and I’m certainly not telling anyone not to do so. But I am certain that I will save a lot of money if I am patient.
As for becoming a part of a neighborhood, why can’t renters become part of a neighborhood? I’m actually renting in the same hood that I was previously owning in, and I’m just as involved as I was before in school, volunteer projects, etc. It’s not as if my personality suddenly changes when I switch from renting to owning. I think that comment is just silly.
I am not a novice at real estate – I’ve been in it for a while as both buyer, seller and renovator. You, and others, are free to ignore my analysis. But I stand by it.
dittoburg: I do not have it in for Miss Muffett. I am just trying to point to a few facts. As Miss Muffett runs around telling everyone on this board not to buy because the sky is falling she forgets a few things. Miss Muffett you have been on the sidelines for how long? The market has increased how much since you have been out? How much would the market have to go down for you to benefit and come out ahead? Everyday Miss Muffett sits on the sidelines and trys to convince others to wait to buy they loose and here is a short list why
1.Income if buying a Multi family
2.Tax breaks Mortgage and property tax
3.Long term wealth
4.Amortization reduction
5.Chance to borrow against the home
6.Becoming part of a neighborhood
People do not listen to her and stop throwning your money away
Who cares about the 3rd quarter. Lets wait for 4th quarter, aye? October is the really important month here, it is seriously when everything collapsed.
To give you more of a real feel, I went out last night to a club in the West Village. I left at 1:30 in the morning and Bleecker street had about 30 empty cabs outside waiting for clients. There was nobody to pick up!
The cab driver who drove us to my lovely Clinton Hill one bedroom told us that business has gone down by 40% or so in the past 2 weeks. The club I went to see my DJ friend play was only 1/4 full when he usually packs a house.
Have a good weekend everybody
Sebb, why do you have it in for Miss Muffett? She’s wisely biding her time as the prices fall so to buy at maximized value. No-one really beleives that contracts signed a week before and a week after the crash are going to look the same.