Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday: The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s…
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday:
The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s why: If price declines accelerate for the mid-to-upper end of the housing market, then that could generate enough large declines in values—even among a small segment of the overall housing market—to push the index lower still.
Meanwhile, here in New York (where there’s plenty of “mid-to-upper” properties) housing prices ticked down another 1.6 percent in April for a total of 21 percent off the June 2008 high, as the chart above shows.
I assume you rent, joe.
my mistake dibs. but give me some more flesh on your interest rate argument. my rates derivatives desk is intereseted in setting you up as a counterparty. your 9:59 post has your original rates argument. now, you are saying:
“A 30 year mortgage at these historically low rates is going to be worth a lot in the coming years”
so, we are to assume you are advising people to borrow now so that they pay back weaker dollars. but it’s a secondary effect, dibs, and it’s way too cute when you’re talking about investing your life savings.
Why would you EVER buy an asset that you know is declining in price, let alone borrow money to leverage your losses!!!
Actually I did notice then when DIBS is posting, the what is silent. They can’t be the same person because DIBS lives in BS and the what lives in Lodi, NJ.
Mish Shedlock, Calculated Risk, Patrick.net are others I read because the “green shoots” perspective receives lavish coverage on cable. But it’s true I’m more Team Bear than not. I found a link to that article featuring What on Patrick.net, that’s how I found brownstoner
Notice that when I post so much neither Return of the What and BHO are not here???
I’m too lazy to start my own blog, bridges, and when I do it wouldn’t be a finance blog. There’s more easy money to be made elsewhere on the internet. I’ll let you know when it’s up and running but the corporate firewall will likely block it. 🙂
Joe the Bummer:
I like theory number three out of the two.
Dibs. There are a number sites I read, including this one, trying to suss out WTF is going on. That’s my goal…so that I can navigate through this shitstorm as best i can. I wasn’t trying to discredit you, I think you’re being a bit testy there. You made a statement that contradicted other things I’m taking in, so…who’s right, who’s wrong? That’s what I want to know. I read Winkler. I read you, on Brownstoner.
I only said that a rising stock market is an indicator of an overall better economy from the point where everyone was predicting another “great depression.” Home prices will eventually follow.
“I have two theories about dibs: either he has a major personality disorder, a meth addiction, or he just doesn’t exist, and b-stoner made him up to bait us all day.”
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at July 1, 2009 10:53 AM
Those would add up to three theories, so you’re skills at math or anything that utilizes math are suspect.