Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday: The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s…
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday:
The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s why: If price declines accelerate for the mid-to-upper end of the housing market, then that could generate enough large declines in values—even among a small segment of the overall housing market—to push the index lower still.
Meanwhile, here in New York (where there’s plenty of “mid-to-upper” properties) housing prices ticked down another 1.6 percent in April for a total of 21 percent off the June 2008 high, as the chart above shows.
” you are a day trader at best. any person at any respectable HF doesn’t have even a fraction of the time you do to post incessant crap.”
Ding ding ding!!!!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
BTW – I don’t think there is anything wrong with being a day trader. But using status as a HFer to claim superiority in financial/market knowledge is just plain lame. I know a lot of dumbass HFers and some super sharp day traders.
okay, i can only handle so much BS from dibs… you are a day trader at best. any person at any respectable HF doesn’t have even a fraction of the time you do to post incessant crap. second, anyone with a pulse and a pair of balls could’ve owned in the past bubble. third, anyone at a respectable HF wouldn’t waste their time in real estate due to illiquidity, significant trx costs and marginal returns. and finally, if the market is such a great leading indicator, then what happened to it prior to Spring 2008? OH, it was pricing in growth in 2050 right?
bridges, lechecal, maybe we can do it this way:
Is there anyone else besides dibs left on team bull? There was a defection to “team moderate” a while back, which I took as more of a re-branding exercise, akin to philip morris’s change to “altria” (think: altruism), or anderson consulting to “accenture” (think: not fraud)
anyone? or can I find something else to do with my afternoon.
This from the WSJ the other day about the Deutsche Bank report:
“How much further could home prices tumble in the New York City metro area? Deutsche Bank predicts a decline of 40.6% from the first quarter of 2009.
That’s a slight improvement over the 47.4% decline that the bank’s analysts had forecast in March, and it reflects in part the fact that prices have dropped since then. Still, prices would have to drop another 32% from the first quarter of 2009 to return the New York market to levels of affordability not seen since 1998….”
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/06/16/deutsche-bank-predicts-40-drop-in-new-york-home-prices/
Now don’t flip out on me dibs! I understand the report excludes condo and co-op data, but here’s my question: Unless there’s some mindblowing inflation just around the bend, how can home prices return, at least nominally, to their previous highs, while unemployment rises? At my firm, the partners are preparing for a 30% cut IN THEIR OWN SALARIES. They are not alone. So even if inflation pushes asset prices up, what use is that if wages stagnate, even among the upper income?
hooray! welcome back, What!
Running of the Jackasses…
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
joe….do you have any idea how many new hedge funds have opened up in NYC over the past three monts?
damn right I do. I’m trying to get jobs at them. It is thin. Total hedge fund jobs are way way down. (by the way, most of them are in CT, which is a nasty commute from brooklyn)
add in bankers, lawyers and consultants, and the 1-2MM dollar apartment crowd is still pretty hosed for a while.
What about earnings? I heard earnings on the SP 500 are around 42 dollars a share.. If that is true than we currently overvalued.. Doesn’t mean we won’t go higher but it won’t be much higher…