Case-Shiller: November Crappiest Month Ever
Prices for homes in the New York area declined at a faster rate in November than in any other month on record. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, properties within a 50-mile radius of the Big Apple declined 1.6 percent between October and November and 8.6 percent year-over-year. The news wasn’t all bad though: New York…
Prices for homes in the New York area declined at a faster rate in November than in any other month on record. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, properties within a 50-mile radius of the Big Apple declined 1.6 percent between October and November and 8.6 percent year-over-year. The news wasn’t all bad though: New York prices are still up 87 percent since the index started in 2000. New York also had company in the misery department: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Portland and Seattle all had their worst months ever.
City Sees Record Home Price Drop [The Real Deal]
Home Prices Fall at Record Pace [CNN]
NY Home$ in Record Plunge [NY Post]
Home Price Index Fell Again in Nov. [NY Times]
Here at the hedge fund, What. No implosion, no more withdrawals, money actually trickling in.
Your view of reality just isn’t so.
Sorry I’m not going to see what the showers are like at the Correctional Facility. I’ll defer to your experiences..
I bet cornerbodega has had a “book and case number” in the past too.
I think Yngrtr made the most salient point in this debate. Let me make a few observations about the NYC housing market:
-I am 99% sure that we can all agree that housing markets are local/regional, so let’s look at it that way.
-Noting that housing is a regional market, my claim is that the collapse of housing prices in markets like Florida, California and Phoenix are not relevant to the NYC market. The reason is that those bubbles collapsed because of an oversupply situation, fueled by all the culprits we know well: speculation, flipping and cheap credit. I remember going to Miami 3 years ago and being astouded at the number of condo towers going up – far higher than NYC. My contention is that NYC did not suffer from an oversupply bubble. If you look at the years around 2005-2006, NYC was adding about 30-40K units of housing a year in new construction, which represents about 1% of the existing h stock, and doesn’t take into consideration the fact that some older units are removed from the market due to deterioration. NYC’s cumbersome regulations prevented a rapid increase in the housing stock.
-Even though I am on Team Bull, I have previously defined what I meant by that, and it is that the average SELLING price of homes will decline by about 20% or less (forget the nonsense of asking price – delusional sellers can ask whatever they want). In the last deep real estate recession of NYC in 1988, the decline in ASP was about 20%, and I predict it will happen again.
-As opposed to the other markets I cited above, NYC’s real-estate recession will be lead by weakness on the demand side,specifically, the reduced income on Wall Street. This is a significant factor, that is not to be ignored. HOWEVER, I go to Yngrtr’s point and state that there is no evidence of a decline in the demand for housing in NYC. People are not fleeing the city, as happened in the bad old days. There is a much higher commitment to urban living now than when I was a boy 40 years ago. NOTE that even though some condos have not been able to sell, these developers have been able to readily rent them out. The vacancy rate of owned or rented units is still low.
In summary, I believe that NYC faces neither an over-supply situation or decline in demand. What it is facing is a reduced income level, and for that reason, I believe that the overall reduction in the ASP will be on the order of 20%.
My two cents!
BHO, cornerbodega, it’s always delightful to hear such factual arguments from the both of you.
The two of you wouldn’t have anything that you could even post were it not for what you take from the What.
“Note to Team Bear: Leave this alone and let the dumbasses keep going…”
I just can’t. The pleasure principle is just too intense.
ROTFLMMFAO!!!!! Yeah Bho it feels good! Plus that was a Hard Core PWNING! Way to go!
The What (Obama will save us..)
Someday this war is gonna end..
Hiya Dave, where are you?
The year = 1982.
30% Mortgage Rates peak a 17.6% (no typo.
Unemployment = 10.8%.
NYC Murders = 2,013.
Now that was a tough year.
“Note to Team Bear: Leave this alone and let the dumbasses keep going…”
I just can’t. The pleasure principle is just too intense.
“Off 8.6% year-over-year. That’s less that the typical “10% off of ask” that would be normal for a buyer to offer a seller; in normal times I might add!!”
Cute, but the index is down -13% from the peak and staring into the abyss as the majority of the contracts were undoubtably signed before Black October. Potential asshats are now smart enough to bid where they think comps are going, not where they are (quarterback style).
“No problem here folks, just keep on walking.”
That’s what I say. Underwater on your mortgage and can’t pay it? Just walk away. Problem solved.
“This too shall pass..”
Absolutely. We eventually made it out of The Great Depression. We can make it out of a 50 percent price collapse.
“If you look at recent closings we are holding our own.”
The successful sellers are holding their own. You’re holding a bag.
“dwindling volume of homes for sale”
Not true, college kid. It’s the volume of sales that is dwindling. Inventory is mounting. Get it right. Unemployed, insolvent “owners” can remain in NYC/Brooklyn all they want. That doesn’t necessarily mean they remain “owners”. Homework assignment: The Great Depression.
“Who will be left to run these companies back to success?”
Which companies are left?
“Soon enough, asshats in Prada will double-park their Hummers on Avenue B again.”
Asshats in Conway double-parking shopping carts on Ave U.
“More thoughtful spending and saving is always a good thing….”
Not for current home prices.
***Bid half off peak comps***
This is good news for the NYC economy. It’s all about moving forward now to diversify our economy. Not talking endlessly about how it’s the freakin end of the world. We know…things suck. Talking about the end of Wall Street is so 2008.
http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/study-says-film-subsidies-create-jobs-in-new-york/?scp=2&sq=film&st=cse
dittoburg … that was awesome.
We’re Jesuses faves? ahhhhh.