Case-Shiller: Record Drops in NY and Nationwide
The latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index stats are once again grim: Prices in 20 major metropolitan areas dropped in March by 18.7 percent from March 2008, about the same level of decline as has been documented over the past few months. Here in the New York region, home prices fell 2.5 percent…
The latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index stats are once again grim: Prices in 20 major metropolitan areas dropped in March by 18.7 percent from March 2008, about the same level of decline as has been documented over the past few months. Here in the New York region, home prices fell 2.5 percent between February and March of this year—a record drop, according to the Real Deal—and 11.8 percent year-over-year. As TRD notes, the index does not include condos or co-ops. The Times makes the point that New York is far less screwed than other places, at least so far: “New York and Detroit, while both reporting large monthly declines in March, show the different legacies of the boom. New York is still up 73.4 percent from January 2000, while in Detroit prices are 29 percent lower. A Detroit house costs about the same today as it did 14 years ago.” The national Case Shiller index for the first quarter, meanwhile, showed a 19.1 percent decline compared with the first quarter of 2008, the biggest drop in the index’s 21-year history.
Home Prices Decline Again in March [NY Times]
Home Prices Fall By Record Amount in 1Q [The Real Deal]
Here is a story and chart from NYTimes about rent ratios. NYC metro area is down to 22 from a peak of 27. The writer states that 20 is bubble territory for national market. Does anyone have data on histroical rent ratios for NY metro area, that will give a clue as to how far we have to go or not.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/business/28leonhardt.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&sq=rent%20ratio&st=cse&scp=3
Hyperinflation buoys up things that people NEED (food, clothing, energy and RENTED shelter). People DO NOT NEED to OWN shelter and will certainly not do so at anything near peak comps (REAL TERMS). And even then, an inflationary but depressionary environment will not save home prices from crashing to half off or worse (REAL TERMS). If Park Slope brownstones go for $10M in five years but it costs you $50/gal for milk, that would still be far worse than half off in REAL TERMS. In nominal terms it would be +300%. But only idiots think exclusively in nominal terms. You brownstoners are smarter than that, right?
***Bid half off peak comps***
until jobs stabilize in the area, have to assume prices will continue to drip (slowly & surely).
Reading, hearing, seeing,… people continue to get fired, still unemployed,…. has to dampen people’s fortitude to buy and to pay a huge price. I view banks not lending secondary to this – ie I think demand (at current prices) is very very weak. Bursting of the myth that real estate is a sure-fire appreciating asset likely leading to a pretty permanent hair cut to prices
Apparently you know less about investing and flipping than you led us to believe. If he owned them free and clear then he still does. If he was using equity in one to buy others he deserved what he got. Big difference. You apparently don’t know the difference.
as I asked yesterday in biggest sale thread (where a J condo unit sold for $200+ more than 2007) –
please post any recent condo resales which give evidence that prices have gone down. These should be easiest to document and so far I have not been able to see convincing evidence in brownstone brooklyn nighborhoods.
“What…I wasn’t able to accumulate 4 homes and very little debt by being retarded. An asshole, maybe. How will I lose all of my wealth??? Will these properties and my securities go to zero?? I think you’re looking more like the retarded Asshole now. Wise up.”
Let me tell you a quick story! A friend of mine thought he was the next “Donald Trump” so he suck and flip the equity from his 2 houses (owned free and clear). His “investor” buds was telling him to this and that and now he is in financial ruin. Remember if it can happen to Bear Sterns, Lehman and Merrill Lynch, it can happen to you too.
The What (5 months)
Someday this war is gonna end
Somewhat, slope. But the market here was also far less speculative in its nature and did not represent second and third homes which is what is killing places like CA, FL and NV where the worst of the price declines CONTINUE. Detroit is its own story and always will be.
I don’t recall DIBS calling the bottom of the Brooklyn RE market. He may have implicitly called a bottom in the stock market by pointing to the sharp increase in stock prices over the last two months. I think that’s what MM meant by “cheerleading’ but she seemed to imply DIBS was talking Brooklyn RE. That’s how I read the debate here, anyway.
The B.5/what/mm/hannible position seems to be that CS results prove that much more of the same is in store for the forseeable future.
DIBS’s view on BK housing market seems to be that stock market’s upward trend suggests that housing price declines will level off a lot sooner than the above think will be the case.
Chicken, what odds do you place on hyper or even big inflation hitting the US within the next 2 yrs? If it comes, I’ll be in trouble – dont have any debt to take advantage of the big inflation